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| Indian-American California GOP candidate Ricky Gill is in a hot contest. |
Republicans could gain eight seats in the House
The
latest data released today by Real Clear Politics on the races for
Congress show Republicans likely to hold 224 seats if the election were
held today with 33 seats too close to call. The Democrats are favored in
178 of the 435 races for seats in Congress. Republicans took control of
Congress in the 2010 elections and look to hold those gains this year.
Commonly
referred to as the Congress, or the United States House of
Representatives, which is the lower house of two houses of Congress, all
435 seats are up for election every day years as they are this year.
The
Examiner
reports the Real Clear Politics (RCP) report on the state of
Congressional races will be cited here as a starting point for this
analysis of the Congressional races. RCP lists 157 seats as safe
Democratic seats and 193 seats as safe Republican seats, and those will
be assumed to be won by those the Democrats and Republicans accordingly.
That leaves 85 congressional races that will be analyzed here.
So the score here is, so far, Republicans lead 193-157 in the contest to
win a at least a 218 seat majority of the 435 seats in Congress.
There are
33 toss-up House seats
around the nation. If the Republicans can do well among these races,
they can make gains and increase their majority in Congress. Democrats
would have to win all these races and would make some gains but fall far
short of regaining control of Congress.
Arizona 1:
Former Congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick runs against Republican nominee
Jonathan Paton. This will be close but more likely to be won by Democrat
Kirkpatrick.
California 7:
Incumbent Republican Dan Lungren faces Democrat challenger Ami Bera.
Lungren should be able to hold on to his seat in this election.
California - Ricky Gill -- "New Direction"
California 9: Democrat Congressman Jerry McNerney faces Republican nominee Ricky Gill in this race. This should be a close race.
California 10:
This contest is between Republican incumbent Jeff Denham and Democrat
challenger Jose Hernandez. This race should favor the incumbent. Leans
Republican.
California 24:
Incumbent Democrat Lois Capps vs. Republican challenger Abel Maldonado.
This race will be close but the incumbent win it. Incumbency for a
Democrats in a close race in a Democrat-leaning state suggests a
Democrat win.
California 26:
This is an open seat being contested by Republican Tony Strickland and
Democrat Julia Brownley. This race will narrowly go to the Democrats.
California 36: This race is between Republican incumbent Mary Bono Mack and Democratic nominee Raul Ruiz. This race leans Republican.
California 52:
Incumbent Republican Brian Bilbray faces Democrat challenger Scott
Peters. While this will be close the incumbent will have the edge and
get reelected to Congress.
Colorado 6: Republican Congressman Mike Coffman is challenged by Democrat Joe Miklosi in a close race the incumbent should win.
Connecticut 5: Running for an open seat Andrew Roraback, the Republican, opposes Democratic nominee Elizabeth Esty. Leans Democrat.
Florida - Allen West for Congress
Florida 18:
This race is between conservative Republican Allen West and liberal
Democrat Patrick Murphy. Murphy has found himself facing questions about
bad behavior in his past while West is surging in the polls. A recent
survey by Democrat-leaning leaning Public Policy Polling has West
leading by nine percent. West will win this election.
Georgia 12: Democrat incumbent John Barrow races challenger Lee Anderson. This race leans Republican.
Illinois 10: Incumbent Republican Robert Dold faces Democrat candidate Brad Schneider. This race leans Republican.
Illinois 12: An open seat race between Democrat Bill Enyart and Republican Jason Plummer, this one leans Republican.
Illinois13:
This is another open seat race that is between Democrat David Gill and
Republican Rodney Davis. This one will also narrowly go Republican.
Illinois 17:
This race features first term Republican Bobby Schilling running
against Democrat Cheri Bustos. Schilling will hold on to this seat and
beat the conventional wisdom that expects him to lose.
Iowa 3:
This open seat race is between Republican Tom Latham and Democrat
Leonard Boswell. Iowa is trending toward the Republican side and this
close race should go to Latham.
Iowa 4:
Popular Congressman Steve King faces Christie Vilsack, the wife of
former Democrat Governor Tom Vilsack. King will easily reelected in this
race.
Kentucky 6: Democrat incumbent Ben Chandler is challenged by Republican Andy Barr. This seat leans Democrat.
Michigan - Dan Benishek for Congress
Michigan 1:
Incumbent Congressman Dan Benishek, elected in 2010, face Democrat Gary
McDowell. A September poll from Public Policy Polling finds McDowell 44
percent to 42 percent. Benishek will survive the challenge and get
reeleted.
Michigan 11:
This is an open seat race between Republican Kerry Bentivolio and
Democrat Syed Taj. This one is expected to go Republican, after the
suprise resignation of Congressman Thaddeus McCotter set up this
contest, in what is generally a Republican leaning district.
Minnesota 8:
Incumbent Republican Chip Cravaack seeks reelection against Democrat
Rick Nolan in a district that has been gradually growing more
Republican. This trend will continue and Cravaack will hold on to this
seat.
North Carolina 7:
Incumbent Democrat Mike McIntyre seeks reelection against Republican
challenger David Rouzer. In a close election incumbency makes a
difference, this seat will go for the Democrats.
New Hampshire 1:
Incumbent Republican Frank Guinta faces a challenge from former
Democrat Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter, who he defeated in a close
race in 2010. Guinta has done everything he needs to do to win a close
district and will be reelected this year.
Nevada 4: This is a newly created seat, should go Republican with Danny Tarkanian, the son of the well-known UNLV basketball coach.
New York - Randy Altschuler for Congress
New York 1: This race features incumbent Democrat Tim Bishop running against Republican Randy Altschuler. This race leans Republican.
New York 21:
Democrat incumbent Bill Owens, who defeated conservative Doug Hoffmany
promising to oppose ObamaCare then went to Congress and voted for it.
Republican challenger Matt Doneny will score the upset and win this
race.
New York 27: Incumbent Democrats Kathy Hochul faces Republican challenger Chris Collins. Collins could win this one in a close race.
Ohio 6: This race is between incumbent Republican Bill Johnson and Democrat challenger Charlie Wilson. This race leans Republican.
Ohio 16:
This is an open seat race between Democrat Betty Sutton and Republican
Jim Renacci. Ohio will narrowly go Republican for Romney and that might
just tip the balance in this race to the Republican nominee Renacci.
Pennsylvania 12:
This race features incumbent Democrat Mark Critz, who was elected in a
close race in 2010, running against Republican Keith Rothfus. Although
it will be a close race, the Democrat incumbent will be reelected.
Texas 23:
Incumbent Republican Francisco “Quico” Canseco is seeking reelection
against Democrat Pete Gallego. This is a Republican-leaning district
where the incumbent will hold on to his seat in a close election.
Utah - Mia Love for Congress
Utah 4:
In this race, incumbent liberal Democrat Jim Matheson faces a strong
challenge from Satatoga Springs Mayor and Republican nominee Mia Love.
The most recent poll listed by RCP shows Love winning by six percent and
the momentum seems to be going that way in this race. Republican Love
will win this race.
Without these 33 close races, the score
was 226 Republicans to 176 Democrats. Of these 33, Republicans are
expected to win 25 and Democrats will win only eight. That brings the
final tally to 251 Republicans and 184 Democrats in the next Congress.
If this holds true on election day, it will be a gain of eight seats for
Republicans.
.
(The Examiner)
