Tuesday January 6 2009
This is a must read for your financial and personal security because our world is going insane. We have insane leaders and apathetic people who are behaving as sheep. Be aware and be prepared.As I said, this is very long - comes with comments and seems to go on forever. But it's food for thought and if you are concerned about personal safety and security in every way, take the time to read it wherever you are in the world, and pass it on if you think it has merit.
Today we present a guest editorial from Roger Wiegand. He is the Editor and Publisher of Trader Tracks Newsletter. Roger is co-editor of WeBeatTheStreet.com and he writes a weekly column, "Rog's Corner," For J Taylor's Gold and Technology Stocks Newsletter. He has had an interest in precious metals and futures since the commodity rallies of the late 1970s and early 1980s. Roger is a voracious reader, reviewing several domestic and foreign newspapers and wire services daily for economic, political, and monetary news. His commentary is frequently featured at KITCO.com.
Our 2009 Predictions, by Roger Wiegand
We think we now have enough data from both the fundamentals and technicals to make some serious forecasts and predictions for 2009. While 2008 was a nasty year when lots of things imploded, they are far from being repaired. Treasury Secretary Paulson told us this week there are no more surprises, which tells me we haven't even discovered but a small portion of this monster derivative mess. His ripping-off of the taxpayers to the tune of $700 billion is only a warm-up. However, the larger question for traders and investors is what could happen next and when.
In the following report we take the key global economic points and suggest the outcome for 2009.
The most important news for 2008 was the destruction of the big global banks' net worth and their badly wounded ability to conduct normal business and make market-moving loans. Ben & Hank's bailout only helped the bad-boy banks reliquify themselves to remain somewhat solvent and stay in business. They are doing nothing to extend credit to any business enhancing western or global economies. The 2009 result will be no significant banker lending, taking more bailout money and sweeping additional bad loans of all stripes under the banker's rug and hiding the rest in back rooms.
The largest surprise in our view was the massive disaster at insurance giant AIG. Despite numerous injections of bailout billions, AIG remains in very serious trouble hanging on by their proverbial fingernails. The 2009 result will be a surprise crash and failure of AIG frightening the world at large causing ripples of failures throughout western and Asian nations unable to conduct business without mandatory insurance policies. Most folks have no comprehension as to the monster fallout this will create. It is in our view literally immeasurable, and this is why Paulson handed them so much money.
Our new president is determined to hand out $860 Billion to One Trillion dollars in a Herculean effort to literally buy a new economic recovery. While some of his ideas are noble indeed the overall plan
will have little effect and Great Depression II shall take hold in 2009 with crashing stock markets in May and September-October 2009. We think the worst of the worst hits in later September 2009.
During the spring of next year we see:
(1) A second larger wave of residential housing mortgage failures; (2) The first big wave of auto loan failures and repossessions; (3) Over $40 billion in credit card defaults, smashing the bank lenders; (4) The first wave of commercial mortgage failures and foreclosures on shopping malls, office buildings and other commercials; (5) And finally, the grand smashing finale of Credit Default Swaps (CDS) originated with no margin money or down payments! We heard today the total is $500 trillion! I cannot even fathom that number. These five converging train wrecks could take the Dow from a dead cat bounce of 10400-10800 back to 7250, or even 6600, or 5600.
Shares traders and investors have one more solid quarter, in our view to regain some stock market losses on the forthcoming Obama Trillion Dollar handouts. We think the rising share markets will help most all sectors gain some recovery and provide the illusion the bottoms are in and new bases found. The stark reality hits home after shares peak in April or early May taking an unprecedented selling high dive scaring the wits out of Americans and the watching world.
Even with these events and rising unemployment and social problems, economic observers and analysts could continue to plead the worst is over, the bottoms are in and a fine, new, shiny world of trading and investing in our bright economy lies just ahead for the fall of 2009. Then, in later September and early October, the New York, London, Tokyo and Asian markets take a monster crash. How low is low and how bad can it get? We think the Dow could end-up on November 1st, 2009 anywhere from 5,600 to a low of 3,000 or even 1,500. One guideline will be a falling overshoot of PE's on our largest, so-called international corporations posting lows of 4 to7. Today, many of them are near 18. What does this tell us about the severity of our projections?
Unemployment nationally in the USA is now touching 16%. The officially posted number is somewhere near half of that. By the fall of 2009, American REAL UNEMPLOYMENT WILL BE NEAR THE ALLTIME 1930'S DEPRESSION HIGH OF 25% UNEMPLOYED. SADLY, THAT IS NOT THE WORST AS IT GETS MORE DIRE. WE PREDICT REAL, USA UNEMPLOYMENT REACHES 30-40%. IN THE RUST BELT STATES OF MICHIGAN AND OHIO, WHILE 40% IS NOT UNREALISTIC.
Several European nations have larger, more established social safety nets for the unemployed. In the USA, local, regional and national authorities are not nearly as prepared. The American federal government departments for food stamps and the job of providing welfare provisions will be overwhelmed. This will be a Katrina event for the hungry citizens of the United States. Urban areas will see skyrocketing crime and in parts of some cities, life could become totally uninhabitable.
The last report we've seen on those receiving food handouts and related welfare amounted to 11 million USA citizens with 700,000 children going hungry each day. We suspect the true amount of those needing food help will rise to 35,000,000 with an untold tragic number of them being little, defenseless children. Governments remain in denial and are not prepared for this national emergency whatsoever. As things worsen, food riots and others with violence aimed at the "haves' are common.
The number of bank failures over the next three years will be in the thousands. In addition, the US Dollar's valuation could break recent lows near 70.00 on the index, dropping to 46.00 by 2011 or 2012.
Inflation or potentially hyperinflation is quite real as the Federal Reserve and US Treasury strain to print and circulate cash to prod our stalled economy. It is simply not working even with the dramatically lower interest rates of late. Benny Bernanke is out of rate cut running room.
Consumers are broke and going broker. Households of interrelated families are doubling and tripling up even with several employed members being under one roof. Basic costs of rent, mortgage payments, health care, food, utilities and taxes are too much to bear on stagnant and in some cases falling wages. In some areas of America, there are entire subdivisions of homes totally abandoned or existing with only a hand full of occupants. The millions thrown at lenders for new mortgages are not getting through to buyers, as there are fewer of them. We are witnessing system breakdown.
Municipalities and states are sinking into a spending, debt-ridden morass. It was reported today that 22 of 50 USA states are in serious budgetary trouble. California is one of those in terrible condition and Michigan is already technically broke as are many of her cities. Detroit will file bankruptcy in 2009 and there will many other surprises as well. There will be a cascade of bond defaults and the outcome will cap the ability of these cities, states and counties to borrow ever more.
The shining light through all of this is the faster we find the bottom the faster we can recover. Sadly, the recovery process will take years. Futures and commodities traders should continue to earn steady profits as the stock markets slide into oblivion for years. We see no recovery until 2015.
Roger Wiegand
Editor, Trader Tracks Newsletter & The Rog Blog at WeBeatTheStreet.com
Letter Re: The U.S. Expatriation Exit Tax
Hi JWR,
Here's another one for your readers. I'd heard of this "exit tax" a few months ago and it was completely ignored by the mainstream media (MSM). At first blush, it doesn't appear to impact most people, i.e. only those over $4 million USD net worth for couples who renounce U.S. citizenship and leave. However, we all know how well the alternative minimum tax (AMT)--the so-called millionaire's tax--worked out. It was supposed to affect only several hundred tax "scofflaws", and now because of inflation, millions of citizens are affected. A few years of 50% inflation will put most professional couples into the realm of exit tax eligible.
I'm sure many of your readers will agree that it is making more and more sense to go off the financial grid, as well as the electric grid. Rendering unto Caesar is getting pretty darned expensive, even if you want to leave!
Take a look at this post over at The Ron Paul Forums. Here is a snippet:
"Europe's Economist magazine refers to this new tax as, "America's Berlin Wall." They also point out that, along with North Korea, the United States is already one of the few countries in the world that taxes its citizens on their income regardless of the country they earn it in. As most already suspected, the IRS is a hard master. A government that is bankrupt by any honest accounting accounting standards will eventually be forced by its creditors to turn over any real assets it still has at its disposal. Unfortunately, in most courts of law, those assets can include the full net worth of all U.S. citizens and residents. The ability to tax this net worth, to extinction if necessary, is the ultimate backing behind the guarantee U.S. debt holders know as"the full faith and credit of the United States."
Yikes! - CK
Two Letters Re: Home Invasion Robbery Countermeasures--Your Mindset and Architecture
Jim,
I have not yet seen mention of “air locks” as a security layer for entry doors. Many years ago I managed a software project that included doing installs at armored car companies. The visitor entrance had you go in one set of doors to a small holding room. Here a security receptionist behind thick glass and gun ports could identify you and hold you until they were ready. Only then could you enter a second set of doors into the main facility, which would be analogous to an inner courtyard in a residential estate (i.e., an open area surrounded by secured offices and security stations with more gun ports). There was no way possible for someone to just barge in through the public doors into the private work areas.
I have always been intrigued with this “air lock” concept for security in a home design. The security screen door might be a micro version of this concept. The walled yard with a security gate is closer to the full concept. Even with those ideas in place, I would still like to have a secure foyer in which visitors could enter and be fully observed and communicated with but still protected by a second beefy security door.
Then if the secure foyer opened into a sort of atrium, you can interior rooms overlooking the foyer have bullet resistance windows and discreet firing ports. It doesn’t seems like it would take too much to design an attractive home with many substantial security layers:
- Walled yard with remote controlled security gate, intercom and security camera
- “Air lock” foyer with observation windows and discrete firing ports and remote controlled secure exterior and interior entry doors
- Interior atrium or courtyard with interior rooms having overlooking bullet-proof windows and firing ports(maybe with decorative sliding covers?)
- Gate or steel door to block off bedrooms from living areas at night
- Safe room inside the bedroom area for final retreat location
- Escape tunnel or hatch from safe room to outside into a camouflaged exit point (bushes, shed, etc.)
Are you aware of any traditional architecture styles that incorporate many of these security layers? For instance, I learned in a cultural training class that in Italy new acquaintances are never invited to a private home for visiting. You always arrange to meet in public until you are well known and then only come over at an invited time, never to just “drop by”. You would never invite a bunch of people over and e-mail them a map to your house to just show up for a party. Only family and close friends are invited into one’s house. Also, the houses tend to have outside gates and entry doors away from the living areas so unless someone expects you, you will never get close enough for them to even know you are there wanting to come in. Sort of a cultural OPSEC. - The NW Pilgrim
JWR Replies: Thanks for mentioning those design approaches. For several years, I worked for defense contractors that had secure (SCIF) facilities. This gave me some first-hand experience. For any readers interested in detailed specifications, do a web search on the phrase "Man Trap AND Entrance". You'll find articles like this one. One proviso: If you utilize a man trap door system to hold a miscreant, then you must immediately declare "you are under citizen's arrest" and summon the police or sheriff's deputies. To do anything else--or otherwise delay--could be the grounds for a civil suit or criminal prosecution.
Hi Jim,
The after market security films [mentioned by another reader] may not be useful as advertised. The issue is that the laminate film is not secured sufficiently to the window frame. An intruder can knock out the glass plane at the edges to gain entry. The security laminate films are more of a safety measure against severe weather by preventing glass shard injury.
Most of the security laminates are secured to a window frame with a small bead of silicone, but this offers little resistance to a blow by a crow bar that can deliver thousands of pounds of pressure per square inch. A intruder could knock out a corner of a window and reach inside to open the lock.
Some vendors use a thick PVC frame that is bonded to the window using an adhesive. However this is still likely not strong enough to hold back a determined intruder for very long. The film lamination may provide between 30 to 50 sec of delay.
If you watch this video of a test with a product using the PVC frame it takes just a few blows to cause the PVC frame to partially blow out. I believe a determined intruder can knock the window enough to get his hand to reach the lock in a matter of seconds.
I believe the real solution is to have the security laminates installed at the factory when the windows are manufactured so that laminate security film is installed into the window frame. I would also like to note that these security laminate films do not offer protection against bullets.
Letter Re: Bureaucratic Restrictions on Defensive Wire and Obstacles
Sir
[Regarding your recent mention of the ban on barbed wire in the city of Newark, New Jersey,] they aren't the only ones. I am currently in Kabul [, Afghanistan] doing contract security work and we wanted to improve the security of the compound we live in. We are doing so by adding HESCO bastions made into fighting positions on the outside of our perimeter wall. As our workers were finishing the last of them, the police came by to tell us that we could not put up HESCOs on the street. When I got out there I asked the police why we could not put out HESCOs. The reply was that someone in parliament thought it made the city look like a war zone and that they would no longer be allowed.
This ignores the fact that Kabul actually is in a war zone. We also had the bombed-out hull of a BTR-152 [Russian Armored Personnel Carrier] alongside the building but that was fine, apparently.
I solved the problem by saying that they were not HESCOs, that we planned to face them with plywood and plant flowers in them. It wasn't for force protection, it was part of our neighborhood beautification program. The workers laughed, the police scowled and within a week we had them enclosed in lumber and had flowers planted on our fighting positions. - Jake (Vacationing in Kabul)
Odds 'n Sods:
Reader Jason in North Idaho mentioned the documentary "Alone in the Wilderness" about Richard Proenneke. Jason notes: "I saw it on on PBS. It was very good documentary."
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The day's economic news, starting with this from The New York Times, courtesy of Karl K.: The End of the Financial World as We Know It. Next, Jonathan B. sent this: The Economist magazine says its a depression. Allen sent us this sobering piece by the ever-cheery Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of The London Telegraph: Asia needs to fully wake up to the scale of the West's economic crisis. And top all that, come these from Cheryl: China, Crystal Maker Waterford Wedgwood Collapses [JWR Adds: Be advised that this corporate umbrella includes Doulton, the makers of the Big Berky ceramic filter elements. So stock up!] -- Ford's US Sales Drop 32% in December -- Bailout Costs Exceed All American Wars -- US Asks Arab Nations for $300 Billion to Fund Auto Bailout -- Idle Ports Signals Two Bleak Years Ahead in World Trade -- Wall Street Braces for 2009's First Full Week -- Buffet's Berkshire "has nowhere to hide" -- Downturn Stress Impacting Health -- As Recession Deepens, So Does Milk Surplus -- America Shifts to Cheaper Wines, and More of Them
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Justin M. flagged a piece in The Los Angeles Times that indicates that Asian Avian flus is still a threat: New bird flu cases revive fears of human pandemic
Jim's Quote of the Day:
"Because of the unprecedented fragility of our intertwined power grid and complex transportation system, the technological West is highly vulnerable to sabotage and chaos." - Camille Paglia
Monday January 5 2009
The MOAB Expands Yet Again: Five State Governors Seek $1 Trillion from Uncle Sugar
Back in November I reiterated my point that the Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB) would know no limits. One of my specific warnings was: "The States - Some 29 of the 50 states are reporting budget crises. Lo an behold, most of the hardest hit states are those with bloated Nanny State bureaucracies. No surprise there. The states that had the worst fiscal management, of course, will get the biggest share of the taxpayer funds. Those that were fiscally conservative will get nothing." A recent wire service headline confirmed that prediction: U.S. governors seek $1 trillion federal assistance.The article begins: "Governors of five U.S. states urged the federal government to provide $1 trillion in aid to the country's 50 states to help pay for education, welfare and infrastructure as states struggle with steep budget deficits amid a deepening recession. The governors of New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Ohio and Wisconsin -- all Democrats -- said the initiative for the two-year aid package was backed by other governors and follows a meeting in December where governors called on President-elect Barack Obama to help them maintain services in the face of slumping revenues."
This is affirmation of my long-standing assertion that the MOAB will continue to expand, uncontrollably. According to a published tally sent to me by SurvivalBlog reader Matt C., $7.2 trillion of bailout money has been allocated, of which $2.6 trillion has already been spent. It is noteworthy that this figure does not include President-elect BHO's proposed $1 trillion "stimulus package", nor does it include the $1 trillion sought by the state governors.But even this glut of Federal largesse (from your wallet, BTW), will be insufficient. You will read of some spectacular state and municipal bond failures, more derivatives fiascos, state pension funds "in crisis", and then there will be news of "special levies", "temporary' or "one time" taxes, and so forth. I anticipate that both state income taxes and state sales taxes will increase dramatically. There of course will also be news of "drastic" cut-backs, but chances are that while some of the more extravagant programs will be cut, few bureaucratic paper-pushing jobs will be sacrificed. (That, my friends is is the only truly "essential service" in the eyes of a bureaucrat.) I also would not be surprised to see some of the states that have never had sales taxes start to implement them. The bottom line is that we can expect taxes to increase at the city, state, and Federal levels. In an era of rising unemployment, the few people that are still productive and fully employed will be asked to shoulder the burden of the bailouts. It will be wealth redistribution on a grand scale--Robin Hoodism run amok. The only genuine escape from all this would be expatriation, but few will take that route. However, the one thing that you can do with relative ease is move internally to a state with a smaller scale of government. Again, it is no coincidence that the states that have he most bloated bureaucracies, the least fiscal responsibility, and the most Nanny State trappings are those that are having the biggest budget crises. If you stay in any of those states, they are going to sock it to you. You can expect--with utter certainty--that the tax rates in those states to soon rise to painful levels. My advice is simple: Vote with your feet.
For any of SurvivalBlog readers that are self-employed, or that are retired (or that are about to retire), or that have "portable" jobs that are readily available with the same job security in other states, my advice comes down to one word: move. If you have been considering moving to a state with suitable retreat areas, take this as your cue. Given the deteriorating real estate markets-both residential and commercial--this may indeed be your last chance to sell and move before you lose another 30% of your equity. Parenthetically, I recently had some correspondence with a consulting client that owner of a small but prosperous business in California. This man owns both a home and half a dozen pieces of commercial real estate. He is someone that has been "considering" moving to a state where hi family would have better chance of avoiding violent crime. My advice to him was blunt:
"I recommend that you seriously consider moving out of California, while you still have the chance to sell your business as a profitable operation, and sell your other commercial properties at a profit." And later, "I recommend moving out of California and making your new [retreat] home your full-time residence. Sell off most or all of your California properties. Perhaps leave one or two that are the most stable, profitable, and recession proof in the hands of a trustworthy commercial property management company. I realize that it is a major life change that we are discussing, but recognize the real decisions have already been made, and made by folks "above our pay grade". Presently, 99% of the population are deer in the headlights. They are petrified and they are going to get squashed. You are in a good position at present, and you should take full advantage of it by cashing out and moving as soon as possible. If you wait until the recession (and then depression) sets in in earnest, you will probably lose nearly everything. " And later in the correspondence, after he mentioned how his business ventures were still prospering, I wrote: " At the current rate, the prosperity you currently enjoy will evaporate in less than two years. By then, all that you will have is un-sellable properties and negative cash flows. Get out!" I then went on to recommend to make some specific recommendations on potential retreat locales (one of which was highlighted in my book "Rawles on Retreat and Relocation".) I concluded with an admonition: "There are quality of like issues at stake, but more importantly preservation of life issues. Discuss this with your family and pray about it. In any case reduce your commercial real estate holdings, as soon as possible. That needs to be done, regardless of where you move. Do not hesitate."
I'm sure that there are many other SurvivalBlog readers that are in comparable situations to that consulting client. My advice to many of you would probably be much the same. The only strong proviso in all this is: Do not abandon a job that is good-paying and that has genuine job security. In times like these, that would be foolish.
Letter Re: Bulk Diesel Fuel Antibacterial and Stabilizer
Hi Jim,
For what it is worth: I was quoted $1.99/gal for diesel/fuel oil for Friday delivery (Northern Virginia) from the terminal, and since it looks like prices will be heading up from here, I am filling all of my reserve tanks. After several hours of study, I decided to go with FPPF Super Fuel Storage Stabilizer and FPPF KILLEM (rather than PRI-D or Stanadyne products) in 32 ounce bottles to protect my investment. The best price I found via mail order was from Fleet Source in New Jersey and Pennsylvania. Delivered cost: $126 for enough to treat 4,000 gallons.
I hope this is useful information for your other readers. Thank you so very much for your wonderful work! Happy New Year! - Scott in Northern Virginia
Letter Re: Small Volume Water Purification with UV from Sunlight
Jim,
I recently learned about a water purification system that is being promoted by Rotary International for Third World areas without safe drinking water. Simply put: fill a plastic bottle with water, and leave it in the bright sun for six hours. The ultraviolet (UV) light kills the pathogens, and the water is safe to drink. [JWR Adds: This method only works well with fairly clear water. UV light cannot penetrate very murky water, and it will not sterilize any plant matter suspended in the water. So be sure to use a pre-filter when treating water from open sources such as ponds, lakes, or streams. ]
Sound too good to be true? The Swiss-developed system has been saving lives for 17 years. It is fastest in the tropics, where increased water temperature assists the process. Winter use in temperate zones may want to consider using solar ovens or greenhouses to achieve adequate water temperature. Even in bright cloudy weather, the process is effective after two days.
I might not want to make this my first potion, but if stranded in the wilderness, of stuck for an extended period without a reliable water supply, I’d give it serious consideration. Regards, - Ben
Letter Re: Acquiring Tire Repair Supplies and Compressors
Mr. Rawles,
After getting a flat tire recently in the back-country I decided to beef up my off-road repair kit with more than just a spare tire. I now have two spares. I've also added a portable 12V compressor along with a portable tire puncture repair kit like this one.
For $35 the kit includes enough plugs to repair perhaps a dozen punctures, extra valve stems and valves, valve wrench and high quality reamer and needle for applying the tire plugs. It is an excellent kit and is much higher quality than the plug kits you find in typical auto stores.
In some states it's illegal to use tire plugs, but for an emergency situation it may be just the ticket you need to get to a tire shop and have a proper tire patch applied. - Craig R.
JWR Replies: That is good advice. I must add one proviso: The 12 VDC compressors normally sold for roadside emergencies use a very wimpy compressor that will not re-inflate a flat tire that has the weight of a car resting on in. They just don't have the requisite oomph. Buy a proper 117 VAC compressor with a 2 gallon pressure tank. (If you are a SurvivalBlog reader, odds are that you already carry a 117 VAC inverter, anyway. These compressors can be run from a small inverter. I've done so many times around the ranch.) If you pay less than $50 for a new compressor, then you can be sure that it will be inadequate for anything more than adding a few pounds of pressure to a tire with a slow leak.
Odds 'n Sods:
Thanks to Lisa for finding this gem: Blacksmith 'a collector of forgotten trades'
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Joe H. sent us a link to an article from Permaculture magazine about self-sufficient living on the cheap (in England)
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I read that the latest movie in the Terminator franchise (Terminator 4: Salvation) is scheduled for release on May 22, 2009. Judging from the trailers, it looks like most if not all of the film takes place in the post-Skynet nuked future. This one should be good.
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The latest flurry of economic news and commentary links from The Economatrix: Bank Bailouts a Failure...And There is No Plan "B" -- Frugal is Cool in Cash-Strapped US -- UK $200 Billion Re-Financing Time Bomb -- UK Banks on Brink of Second Bailout -- UK Banks Defy Brown's Call to Loosen Credit -- BoE to Cut Interest Rates; Savers to Receive Zero Interest -- Jobless in City Park Tent Village -- US Manufacturing Slumps to 1980 Low -- Gulf Cooperation Council to Create New Currency -- Feds Sell Off Failed IndyMac for $13.9 Billion -- Sanderson State Bank Latest Failed Bank -- Oil Prices Rebound as Dollar Slumps -- Store Bankruptcies Can Burn Shoppers -- Will Your Cell Phone Crash in Emergencies?
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FloridaGuy flagged this: Newark, New Jersey bans barbed wire
Jim's Quote of the Day:
"There was no court in Holland which would enforce payment. The question was raised in Amsterdam, but the judges unanimously refused to interfere, on the ground that debts contracted in gambling were no debts in law. Thus the matter rested. To find a remedy was beyond the power of the government. Those who were unlucky enough to have had stores of tulips on hand at the time of the sudden reaction were left to bear their ruin as philosophically as they could; those who had made profits were allowed to keep them; but the commerce of the country suffered a severe shock, from which it was many years ere it recovered." - Charles Mackay, LL.D., describing the Tulipomania, in Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, first published London,1841.
Sunday January 4 2009
Letter Re: Building a Very Inexpensive 10-in-1 Machine Tool for Every Retreat
Dear Mr. Rawles
The [home-made] MultiMachine is an accurate all-purpose machine tool that can be used as a metal or wood lathe, end mill, horizontal mill, drill press, wood or metal saw or sander, surface grinder and sheet metal "spinner". It can be built by a semi-skilled mechanic using just common hand tools. For machine construction, electricity can be replaced with "elbow grease" and all the necessary material can come from discarded vehicle parts.
If the MultiMachine builder adds just three easily-learned skills:
Making small welds with a welder made from three vehicle batteries hooked in series.
Using a flower pot furnace to make simple Zinc and Aluminum alloy castings.
Grinding lathe cutting tools. (There are many "How to" instructions on the web for all this).
...then they can then build seven additional metal bending, rolling and cutting tools that could be used to equip a small but fully functional metal working factory.
That's about 20 serious metal working tools in a project that needs just broken engine blocks, used pipe and truck frame pieces (and lots of hacksaw blades)!
How can just one kind of machine do all this? In almost every kind of machining operation, either the work piece or the cutting tool turns. If enough flexibility is built into these functions, the resulting machine can do almost every kind of metal working operation that will physically fit.
Sounds crazy or too good to be true? The 4,600 member Yahoo news group on Multimachines doesn't think so and are standing ready to help.
Don't know anything about machining? Read the small book "How to Run a Lathe" available on our news group.
Every person interested in personal survival needs these free books and video in their library (at least)!
Again, no catches, no charges, no nothing! Just benefit from the seven years work spent developing machine tools for poor people in developing countries. - Pat D.
From the SurvivalBlog Archives: Survival On a Shoestring Budget
I often get e-mails from readers claiming either directly or indirectly that preparedness is "only for wealthy people"--that working class people cannot afford to prepare. That is nonsense. By simply re-prioritizing your budget and cutting out needless expenses (such as alcohol, cigarettes, convenience foods, and cable television) almost anyone can set aside enough money for a year's worth of storage food in fairly short order.
It is amazing what can be done with hard work, ingenuity, and very little money. While I do not endorse interloping on public lands nor do I suggest that you live like a hermit, the following stories are indicative of what can be accomplished with next to no cash.
First, here is an article about about a father and daughter that lived for four years undetected in a Portland, Oregon park
Next, an article about New York City's part-legend, part-fact "Mole People"
I also vaguely recall in the early 1990s reading an article about a man who secretly built an underground house in parkland abutting the suburbs somewhere on the east coast. The house went undetected for several years. Its entrance was hidden in a berry thicket. He was only discovered because neighbors saw his comings and goings. When sheriff's deputies arrived to investigate, after much searching for the entrance, they entered the underground house just as the man was taking a shower in his bathroom. (Perhaps one of you readers saved the newspaper clipping or has a link to the news story.)
I recommend the book "The Last of the Mountain Men". It is the story of Sylvan Hart (a.k.a."Buckskin Bill"), a famous Idaho solitary who lived deep in a roadless section of the River of No Return Wilderness. His solution to his own unemployment during the Great Depression was to move to the wilderness and live self-sufficiently. The book describes how Hart lived from the 1930s to the 1970s. He mined and smelted his own copper, made his own muzzle loading rifles and pistols, and constructed his house and garden. It is a fascinating book.
And for someone with a "maxi" budget? Consider the Bear Den: [now advertised at our spin-off SurvivalReatly.com web site.]
I didn't point out all of the preceding references because I want you to live like hermits or flee into the wilderness and live in a hollowed-out tree like the boy in My Side of the Mountain. Rather, I just want you to start thinking outside the box. Survival is 90% sweat, ingenuity, and perseverance. It is only the remaining 10% that requires cash.
Letter Re: Feed Sacks as Sandbag Substitutes
Mr. Rawles;
We came across a small discovery here on our ranch. We feed many animals and four dogs. So we go through a good deal of dog food in bags. I noticed the similarity in dog food bags to the construction of sandbags. So, I have been using , dog food bags as low cost/no cost sandbags. They work well and if you keep the weight close to the amount that came in the bag. They don't rip. We have been using them for a year and they hold up well in our tests thus far. They have been used in areas that are under roof so they don't get exposed to rain/moisture. They work well in areas where one would want to bag to bolster areas close to windows etc. We have also stored some without sand dirt and they hold up well and don't seem to degrade.
I thought I would share our small discovery. Thanks for what you do and your efforts. - EG
Odds 'n Sods:
The Releveller wrote to suggest that America's architectural future may lie in China's past: Fujian Tulou.
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In the "Why am I not surprised?" Department: NASA's Hansen to Obama: Use Global Warming to Redistribute Wealth
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Chris K. sent a linked to a Wired magazine article with lots of rookie survival comments. Chris noted: "A few sound like they may survive the first couple weeks and [then] become armed and dangerous -- a good reason to move another 100 miles away from the 'blast zone'."
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More economic cheer from Cheryl: 2008 Humiliating Year for Investors, Outlook for 2009 Grim -- Ten Major Threats Facing US Dollar in 2009 -- In Gold We Trust -- GMAC Bailout a Sign of the Times -- Second-Hand Stores Shine in Weak Retail Market -- 1940s Austerity: Make Do, Waste Not -- Flawed Accounting Methods Hides True Scale of Pension Fund Losses -- Microsoft Announces 15,000 Job Losses -- Economists Warn of Doom and Gloom -- Jobless Who Get Benefits Most Since 1982; 4.5 Million Figure Expected to Grow -- Banker Buys $37 Million Apartment After Getting $25 Million Buying for Doing Virtually Nothing -- How We Went from $42,000 to $6,500 and Lived to Tell About It -- GMAC's $6 Billion Deal Show Why Automakers Need to Head for Chapter 11 -- Ludwig von Mises Institute: The Crisis in 10 Points
Jim's Quote of the Day:
"America’s most precious metals are Gold, Silver, and Blued Steel." - Frank in Maine (a SurvivalBlog reader)
Saturday January 3 2009
Note from JWR:
Today we present another entry for Round 20 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The contest prizes include:
First Prize: The writer of the best contributed article will be awarded two transferable Front Sight "Gray" Four Day Training Course Certificates. This is an up to $4,000 value!
Second Prize: A three day course certificate from OnPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner's choice of three-day civilian courses.
Third Prize: A copy of my "Rawles Gets You Ready" preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing
Round 20 ends on January 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical "how to" skills for survival will have an advantage in the judging.
Fishing at the End of the World, by Jason A.
Fishing with a single line is not the most effective or efficient use of one’s time when the goal is to harvest fish for food. At the best, I have seen fishermen attend to four or five lines with limited success. Any more than that will cost the fisherman bait and bites. When TEOTWAWKI arrives the chances that we find time to enjoy the simpler pleasures—such as wetting a line in the shade while enjoying a brew—will vanish. The purpose of this writing is to describe the several methods that will produce large catches with little or no attention needed.
The techniques have varied names depending on where you are from and some work in different ways but the goal is the same: To present lines to the fish with a means to work against the fish, thus hooking it, fighting it and/or notifying the fisherman of a bite. Thus, many of the techniques act essentially as water bound traps.
The primary prey pursued with these techniques is catfish. Catfish are one few fish with a very wide range. According to author Joseph S. Nelson, different types of catfish can be found on every continent except Antarctica. (Fishes of the World, John Wiley & Sons, Inc. ISBN 047125031) However, they may not all be edible (I know of several saltwater species that are not). Catfish are very nutritious as well. According to one Internet reference, one three-ounce serving of freshwater catfish contains "about 146 calories, 17 grams of protein and 8.7 grams of fat." Not to mention essential vitamins and minerals.
Smaller variants of the methods described and different baits can be used with other species of fish however. It must be said, also, that when fishing for catfish, turtles are likely. However turtles are usually not an unwelcome catch as they are as tasty as catfish (though they are more difficult to pull up).
In my home state of Kentucky most if not all fishing techniques have clear and strict regulations to ensure fair harvest and safety. For instance, here in Kentucky sport lines such as are described in this writing must be certain distances from dams and are restricted in bodies of water of certain sizes. In Kentucky, Each sport fishing trotline, jug line or set line must be: 1) permanently labeled with the name and address of the user; 2) baited, checked and all fish removed at least once every 24 hours; 3) removed from water, bank or tree when fishing ceases.
Important warning: Check your state and local regulations before embarking upon any fishing venture.
Jug Lines
I begin this writing with the subject of jug lines because of all of the techniques in this article, there are none more productive or entertaining.
As with most fishing techniques there are several variations so experimentation cannot be discounted. Anything that fits the purpose is sufficient. That purpose is nothing more than to present a baited hook to your prey and attach it to something (a jug) that pulls back sufficiently to hook the fish and notify the angler. The jug line advantage is that the line depth can present the bait at multiple depths if the feeding zone is not known. This allows the angler to set multiple jugs at varying depths until a successful depth is discovered.
The simplest and most recognizable setup involves nothing more than a jug, a line, a hook and a sinker. The jug could be almost anything that floats. Two liter or 16 ounce soda bottles are fine. Empty and cleaned detergent or bleach bottles are superb as they are thick and float well. As of late, more and more anglers are determined to refine the technique by “building” jugs. The most effective ones are nothing more than a length of PVC pipe threaded through a “pool noodle”. The pipe should be longer than the noodle and the noodle should be pushed on and secured to one end. The line and accompaniments are tied to the pipe at the exposed end. Thus, when the fish pulls down, the noodle stands up as notification of a “fish on”. The jug can float on the current or it can be anchored by tying on another line or by placing the hook line off the main line by using a swivel.
Kentucky laws restrict the quantity of jug lines to no more than 50 per boat. Jug lines may contain only one hook per jug. Check your state and local regulations.
Limb Lines (Set Lines)
Limb lines are simply lengths of line with the end opposite the hook secured to an overhanging limb. This technique is probably better suited for rivers because limbs overhanging lakes will more than likely be located in shallow water.
One variation of limb lines is cane poling, where the limb is provided by the angler. Basically the longest and most sturdy (while flexible) length of cane is equipped with a hook, line, sinker (optional) and bait. The opposite end of the cane is driven deep into the ground of the nearby bank. The arc of the cane is the indication of the bite.
Kentucky laws restrict the quantity of limb lines to no more than 25 per person. Set lines may contain only one hook per line.
Trotlines
Trotlines are simply limb lines with more than one hook. The additional hooks are attached to shorter lengths of line which are attached to the main line via swivels. Knots keep the swivels from moving the shorter lines where they are unwanted. One end of the line is attached to a stationary object on shore such as a tree (limb or trunk) or a fence post. The other end should be anchored in some way. A coffee can filled with dry cement and an eye bolt is fine or a brick works equally as well. Do not do as most old timers do and bait up your hooks from shore and toss the brick. It is a good way to get an arm (or head) full of hooks.
There are variations to the standard trotline. Both ends can be tied to stationary shore objects and the line can be strung across the water with a weight in the center. As with the other techniques improvisation is an art and can yield better results.
Kentucky laws restrict the quantity of trot lines to no more than 2 per person. There are also strict regulations on the quantity of hooks per line as well as the spacing of said hooks. The line must also be set three feet or more below the water’s surface.
Hooks
Hooks must be chosen based on the application. As a general rule, for these techniques, the stronger the hook the better the performance. Stronger is relative not only to the material of the hook (which should be steel) or the thickness (thicker the better) but also the coating. The hooks should be zinc-coated at the very least. Stainless steel is best. Remember that these hooks are going to spend a great deal of time submerged. In fact, the best trotline hooks are probably saltwater hooks.
The style of hook to be used is mostly personal preference. Some will argue that certain styles work better. Choose the appropriate hook for the prey and bait. I personally prefer a circle hook as I think it does a better job of hooking the fish and keeping it hooked. I don’t have any data to back up this claim. The engineer in me tells me this is correct and that also the deep circular bend would also prove stronger. Maybe one day I’ll test that theory.
The size of the hook, again, must be chosen to fit the application. Most sizes from size 3/0 to 6/0 are used commonly. The middle ground is the most common.
Line
The line used should be strong and most synthetic materials can be used. Cotton should not be used, however. Surveyors twine is strong when dry but is absolutely the worst line to use. The line must be like the hook, impervious to the effects of being submerged for extended amounts of time. Some suppliers in New England offer a line that is tarred for water resistance. Heavy braided fishing lines can also be used. The diameter is not very important. The fish will not see the lines or hooks; they will come to the lines by smelling and feeling the bait. Bait
The bait placed on the line will, in most cases, determine the catch.
Flathead catfish are notoriously picky and most times will only take live bait such as shiners, chubs or bluegill. Most times, these baits can be lip-hooked. I feel, however, that hooking them through the eye or toward the tail improves the bite. It may seem cruel but the more injured the bait appears, the more likely the predator will strike.
Blue catfish and channel catfish will bite live bait and almost anything else including but not limited to: shrimp, leeches, worms, chicken liver or gizzards, catalpa worms, doughbait, stinkbait, and cutbait.
It is important not to overlook anything as bait. It should also be noted that certain baits work better on certain days or seasons. The good news is that you can set enough lines to experiment and see what works.
Location
The best places to set jug lines are along large, long flats where large catfish roam, hunting their prey. On lakes, creek arms or shallow bays are prime locations.
Timing
Most fishermen prefer to try their luck during the hours just before and after dusk and well into the night. Full moon nights seem to produce the best. Catfish are great hunters in any light due to their amazing senses however. Catfish can taste with many different parts of their body. They are sometimes called “swimming tongues”. Combine that with the electro receptors in its head and it becomes the perfect killing machine—a virtual freshwater shark—in low light conditions.
While Blues and Channels will eat anything, including junk, the Flathead prefers live bait and thus is more vulnerable at night when hunting is easy.
After the Catch
Despite what many people say, a catfish can be filleted as any normal fish might. Skinning is not necessary but can decrease the amount of meat that is wasted. The knife used for filleting must be very sharp. Use caution.
Start with a cut that runs parallel the fish’s gills but is rear of the pectoral fin. Make that cut, also parallel to the cutting surface or ground, until the knife hits bone. Remove the knife. Reinsert the knife, with the flat of the blade parallel to the bone you just hit, starting with the tip at the fish’s back. While slicing, insert the tip further and work the cuts toward the rear of the fish. If you are contacting the rib bones you are making the cuts deep enough. Once you move the knife rear of the ribs you can insert it straight down and out the other side at the bottom of the fish. Continue rearward, keeping the knife as close to bone as possible. When you have reached the tail, flip the meat over and severe any additional attachment points. After the fillet and skin combination has been removed from the fish lay it on a flat surface with the skin down. Lay the knife blade parallel to the cutting surface and remove the meat from the skin. Place the first fillet in cool clean water with a dash of salt added. The salt will prevent bacteria growth and will season the meat a bit. Repeat for the opposite side.
Once your fish have been filleted, wash your hands and proceed with steps to cook your catch.
Pat the fish dry and dredge in cornmeal, fry in a cast iron skillet full of cooking oil. Enjoy!
Conclusion
When securing food is of a higher priority than having a good time, the techniques described in this article are far superior to rod and reel. That being said, the entertainment value of simply providing food for the table by hunting a prey and succeeding make the reward just that much tastier.
Letter Re: Inexpensive Spare Eyeglasses
Hello JWR,
Thanks for the site. Information is the best currency. I will send 10 Cent Challenge money in February.
Just wanted to give you a link to LBWEyewear.com, a site I discovered which sells [made-to-order] prescription eyeglasses. Most normal pairs are less than $25. Some less than $15.
I don't have any connection to that site, just a satisfied customer. I'm sure there are others like it.
I have found that paying 200+ dollars for a pair of glasses is not economical because I lose them often and break them. It's always good to have a spare pair in the car, or BOB. And even though ordering eyeglasses on a web site"sight unseen" means you have to guess as to the style / fit, it's better to have a clunky pair in an emergency than none. Also, post-SHTF, optometrists appointments are probably low priority. I think this falls under the category of medical supplies, such as prescription medicines.
For the second time now I have ordered 4 pairs for less than 60 dollars. There is a pair in each vehicle I own, one by the television, one in the shooting bag, etc. Also, after ordering once I now know which to order that are stylish for me. This company sent both my packages snailmail within two weeks.
Here's the catch: you have to know your prescription. That means you have to call your eye doctor and finagle this information out of their receptionist. Legally they have to give you this info, but that doesn't mean they will. Optometrists make their money selling their ability to check your eyes. They're selling you the eye exam, not the glasses. But they give you the exam "for free", because you will buy the glasses for hundreds of dollars. The manufacturing itself costs only a few dollars for common glass
Also, your prescription is more than what is written on your contact lenses box. You have to know the power of your near / farsightedness, the axis of any astigmatisms, and your pupillary distance. Doctors don't often give this information on the first try.
In support of buying local and supporting independent retailers you may want to pay your optometrist something for their service. I however cannot justify another pair of over-priced specs. Offering to "buy the exam" may be a more honorable way to go.
Hope this info is helpful! Best, - N.
Three Letters Re: The Best College Degrees for the Next Depression?
Dear Jim:
Why go to college at all? Speaking as a college graduate, unless you are getting a technical degree, you would probably learn more apprenticing in a real business that interests you, and studying on your own and taking courses part time. When you need to apply knowledge right away, motivation is high, and the lesson really sticks. Bonus - you avoid 4 years of immersion in (and contributing to) a politically correct cesspool - often intellectually dishonest to boot.
For some professions you do need a degree for technical knowledge. But most of the time a degree is just a screening device or "ticket punch" to show that you can study hard and persevere. Gary North has a whole section on his web site on how to beat the college racket, and get your ticket punched with a degree for under $25,000, and no debt.
The way things are going a highly skilled trade where you can work for yourself might be the best bet (electrician, plumber, auto mechanic, computer repair, etc., etc.). Someone who can just work like a professional in the "blue collar" trades will have such an advantage over most of the competition they will do well.
Regards, - OSOM
Mr. Rawles,
I wholeheartedly agree with both of the readers whose letters referenced learning a trade before attending college. My own experience, I grew up in a military family, when I graduated High School I wasn't sure the military for me just yet and had the foresight to understand I probably wasn't mature enough to handle college at that point in my life. I was also fortunate that in addition to a tradition of military service my family also had years of experience in the trades, one Grandfather became a boilermaker after the Navy, the other a carpenter after his stint in the Army, my Father retired after 22 years in the Air force and learned the trade of sheet metal work and HVAC repair, all of them proudly non-union. With their guidance I did some research and discovered the excellent merit shop (Non-union) apprenticeship programs offered by the Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC). The tuition is reasonable, (roughly $200 per semester when I started in 1997) and most member companies are so thrilled to have a young worker take his career seriously that they will sponsor the cost, provided good grades are maintained.
I chose the carpentry apprenticeship program, and shortly after graduation on my 18th birthday embarked on a eye-opening and enlightening experience. One of the first things that shocked me was that at a modest sized company for our large upper midwest town, (150 field employees) there was only one other apprentice my age. We had a handful of laborers who were college dropouts, but none of them were interested in tradecraft training, preferring to remain unskilled laborers and wondering why they always got the grunt work. The fact that there wasn't a larger group of young Americans clamoring to learn a useful trade to provide for themselves and their families was astounding to me!
After two exciting years (and two bitterly cold winters) of building everything from power plants, to hospitals, to runways I decided to return to college. At first I was planning on studying Civil Engineering, which is a fine profession but entails an inordinate amount of desk work after graduation. Again, with some guidance I stumbled upon Construction Engineering (At other universities known by the names of Construction Management, or Construction Technology).
At the University I was shocked by two things
1) College is a business! They will try to keep you in as long as they can to keep raking in the student fees, etc. My first academic "advisor" even told me that finishing a bachelors degree in four years was a pipe dream, and most students took five years these day! I promptly switched advisors. Students, don't let anyone convince you it can't be done in four years or less. I was far from a stellar student in high school, just barely cracked into the top 50% of my graduating class and I completed my Bachelor's degree in four years, while working 30+ hours a week at part-time jobs. This may take a little extra "hard work" but again, nothing worth having comes easy and if you're already a preparedness minded individual than this shouldn't be too much of a stretch for you!
2) A surprising majority of engineering students never worked a trade, and never held a trade related internship in college! This flabbergasted me to say the least, how could someone who's never put hands on a piece of lumber or steel expect to lead workers in a project? Needless to say, come graduation time those students who continued to work at best buy weren't in the highest demand by employers. Conveniently enough, my trade training had an added benefit: Rather than having to work a "typical" part-time job in retail, I always found construction companies that were willing to work around my college schedule, and pay significantly above the minimum wage my friends were earning. Which offered the added benefit of leaving the nights, and most weekends free for studying or socializing.
After finishing school, I attended the Navy's Officer Candidate School and became a Surface Officer for 5 years. Again, my trade experience gave me a valuable leg up over my peers. I finished school with no debts, having continued to work the entire four years but was again surprised to learn that some of my friends who had been [contracted cadets] in ROTC had massive debts. The ROTC is quite willing to take C students, but don't expect to get a full ride! I knew of many officers that finished college twenty, thirty, even forty-thousand dollars in debt!
Now working as a Project Manager for a large General Contractor I am still surprised by the lack of interest shown by today's students for the trades. To me, the work is exciting, doesn't involve a desk, and pays extremely well. Believe me, we would love to take as many motivated young Americans as we can get our hands on! Unfortunately, many of them have been sold on the dream that college is for everyone, it's not, and that isn't a bad thing. I can't say enough good things about learning a useful trade or skill, It's a job that can never be outsourced, but unfortunately it is being "in-sourced" by immigrants who are willing to work hard, harder than most Americans these days.
Mr. Rawles, thank you for your wonderful blog. Very Respectfully, - A Former C Student
Jim-
Having recently discovered the site, I am now a daily follower. I find the advice practical and in keeping with my pragmatic approach to life. The technical detail is impressive, and the topics wide ranging. There is always something surprising each day I scroll down the page. I am an architect in New York City, and find the architectural topics of great interest. The site's take on architecture is refreshing and seldom discussed or debated elsewhere. I will plow through the archives and find out what sort of treasures lurk within.
There have been a number of recent letters discussing the issue of college education. There is a common tone to these letters that suggests that learning a trade is important, perhaps of greater importance than getting one of those pricey college degrees. I agree that having useful skills, particularly hand skills, is important. As for myself, I am a woodworker and carpenter, making and designing furniture, restoring my house in addition to my architectural "office job."
Here's my take- college degrees are critical in addition to "pragmatic" skills. I'm not going to suggest which degree to get, since certain degrees are "more valuable" in certain parts of the USA and world than others. Architects are useful in New York City but useless in Nebraska, for example. Two points I want to stress:
1- My degree "got me noticed" by all my employers. It "got me a foot in the door" as ridiculous as it sounds. That degree, that piece of paper, really got me ahead of the mobs on the streets. It's a sad arrangement, expensive but necessary. Think of that piece of paper as some prized battle rifle as you soldier through life- it's a tool like anything else.
2- My degree "expanded my mind" beyond the day-to-day, hand-to-mouth nature of existence. Religion "expanded my mind" as well, but the concepts and thinking that college introduces rounded me out even more. When we are all holed up behind steel doors clutching those riot guns, the mind needs to find release, in addition to prayer and meditation. Art, philosophy, psychology, medicine, etc. can help.
Keep up the good work! - Freakoscope
JWR Replies: The emphasis on learning a trade in many of the recent letters overlooks one key issue: At present, someone with a baccalaureate degree on average will earn $1,000,000 more in their lifetime that someone with just a high school diploma. So if you plan to work in the corporate world, then I recommend getting at least a Bachelor's degree. Just make sure that the degree is in something useful, where there is a reasonable expectation that there will be jobs waiting. (Not "bird calling and basket weaving"--as my father dubbed the useless degrees.) Perhaps the best way to do this is to work in a skilled trade or with an IT certification, to work your way through college on a five to eight year plan. Graduating debt free at age 26 or 27 with lots of practical experience will actually make you a much more desirable job applicant than someone that graduates at age 22 or 23 with nothing other than the degree on their resume. Take as many lower division credits as possible from a community college or on-line. All that employers will consider is the degree itself, and the name of the institution that eventually grants the degree. So take your first two years "on the cheap", and then transfer to a more prestigious school.
Odds 'n Sods:
Blacksheep sent us this Army Times article about WoundStat: Army halts use of new anti-blood loss product. (Note: So far as I know, Celox and QuickClot (available from several of our advertisers) are still approved for use in trauma cases.)
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FloridaGuy sent this "signs of the times" piece from one of the several states teetering on the edge of bankruptcy: California Taxpayers Due Refunds May Get IOUs
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This piece by Matt Hardigree was linked once before at SurvivalBlog, but it was so entertaining that it bears repeating: And Now for Something Entirely Different - The Ten Best Post-Apocalyptic Survival Vehicles. (Thanks to Jack B. for the reminder.)
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"N" sent us the link to this essay on self defense against skyjackers aboard aircraft: Fight Back. Note that the author's mention of carrying a carbon fiber knife would be a felony.So it is best to rely on canes, stiff combs, and ballpoint pens.
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Eric sent this: Rising desperation as China's exports drop
Jim's Quote of the Day:
"If the jury feels the law is unjust, we recognize the undisputed power of the jury to acquit, even if its verdict is contrary to the law as given by a judge, and contrary to the evidence." - 4th Circuit Court of Appeals, US v. Moylan, 1969
Friday January 2 2009
Letter Re: Sources for Fasteners for D.I.Y. Web Gear Fabrication
Good Morning, Jim!
I am a long-time regular reader here with a question. On your blog you've been recently posting about various web gear, etc. I have long desired to build some of my own gear using nylon straps and high strength plastic buckles, tensioners, and adjustment components typically found on outdoor gear. The problem has been finding a source/supplier for these components. Do you have any recommendations?
Thank You, - John Geerman
JWR Replies: In my experience, piece parts for Fastex buckles and similar parts are ridiculously expensive if bought new in small quantities in a "brick and mortar" retail store. Lower prices can be found in bulk online (for example, at eBay), REI (Fastex quick release buckles and "tri-glides") and Reef Scuba (for nylon webbing material). But I've found that it is often best to simply find "trashed" military surplus backpacks and well-used older generation Load Bearing Vests (LBVs), and cannibalize them for their hardware. Check around at your local surplus stores to see what they have.
The Swiss Army surplus waterproof Alpine backpack extensions, for example, have a profusion of redundant hardware--including the hardware and straps such as the extraneous tie-down straps like those designed to hold down a Swiss "Darth Vader" helmet when stowed on the back of the pack. If you take half of these off, you still have a quite useful waterproof bag, plus a big pile of male and female Fastex type connectors, short length of straps, and tensioners.
Five Letters Re: Home Invasion Robbery Countermeasures--Your Mindset and Architecture
Dear Jim,
Just one caution amid all the excellent advice on hardening a house against intruders--be sure it's possible to get out from the inside easily in event of a fire or other disaster. Shutters, or latchable
bars are better for this than those mounted solidly into the structure. Alternately, consider paying for ballistic glass. - Michael Z. Williamson
Mr. Rawles,
Thanks for your time and efforts - SurvivalBlog has been a great help to me and I am planning to mail a 10 Cent Challenge contribution to support your work. In the meantime, I thought I would comment on a recent series of postings about "Home Invasion Robbery Countermeasures" with some of the changes I've recently made.
The home we recently purchased was a brick ranch, but it had a number of architectural weaknesses: Double-hung windows with standard weak latches, doors with weak strike plates, no deadbolts, a flimsy garage door,and two sliding-glass doors. Although we are in a rural, peaceful location, I have taken several measures to increase the home security that may be helpful to others.
The flimsy garage door has been replaced by a windowless insulated door with internal and exterior steel panels.
Each of the exterior doors have had a security storm door with laminated glass and a 3-point latching system installed (Larson brand from Lowe's). The storm doors allow opening the entry door and being able to view the surroundings before unlocking and opening the security door.
I've purchased "Strikemaster II" door strike's to install on the exterior doors along with good locks and deadbolts so that even if the security storm doors are breached the steel entry doors are reinforced. I'm also adding a "Strikemaster II" and deadbolt for the door leading from the garage to the house.
To reinforce the windows, I've had them laminated with an 8mil security laminate film and an attachment glazing system to anchor the laminated glass to the window frame. I've also purchased window pins to install so that the window cannot be forced even if the sash lock were somehow broken. The sliding glass doors are also laminated and security bars are being installed. An added bonus is that the laminated windows have a solar tint to cut summer heat gain by 40% and with the insulated garage door and the storm doors I anticipate much lower energy costs.
I am also planning to install a wireless Dakota driveway alarm and gate as you have recommended. My other plan to increase security is to begin keeping guinea hens since they offer a number of benefits to a rural home or retreat - they are fantastic guards that sound the alarm whenever anything is amiss, they feed themselves on bugs, ticks, etc. which is great for organic farming, and they supply both meat and eggs.
Hopefully some of the ideas I am implementing will be of help to others. I also recommend getting used heating oil tanks (often available for free or nominal cost on Craigslist) and using them to stock up on fuel. Clean the tank, install a battery operated fuel pump, and buy a supply of fuel while it is cheap before war breaks out and the price of oil soars again. Thanks again for all of your help, and Happy New Year. - SteelerFan
Dear. Editor:
In all the talk about using high tech electronic gadgets to protect against home invasion robberies I am surprised no one has yet mentioned the tried and true dog. My choices are Akitas and Great Pyrenees, but just about any medium to large sized dog will do. Attack and protection training is nice if one can afford it and is willing to accept the responsibility of such a trained dog, but from personal experience, I haven't had a dog yet that would not unhesitatingly lay it's life down to protect it's family and home.
Do I expect my dogs to stop a home invasion by several armed and determined thugs? No, I don't. But I do expect them to buy me the necessary seconds to grab my weapon so that I may. And thank you for a great site, - James G.
Mr. Rawles,
Many years ago when I worked in security we use to install security window laminates to the inside of high-risk structures. This laminate bonds to the glass and works much like the laminated windshield in a car. It is virtually invisible once installed but can repel ferocious attacks. We used the products on retail stores and high-end homes that didn't want security bars or shutters due to aesthetic reasons.
The other nice part of these products are they are always protecting you. You don't need to shut them like window shutters and they aren't ugly like bars. They are also very deceptive to intruders who think the window will be an easy entry point only to find that they can't get through it with a baseball bat and crowbar. It also provides minor ballistic protection and protection against blast by limiting glass shrapnel.
There are sites that can install it professionally or do-it-yourself (DIY). Here are some:
http://www.diywindowsecurity.com/
http://www.shattergard.com/home.html
http://www.armorcoatfilms.com/
http://solutions.3m.com/wps/portal/3M/en_US/WF/3MWindowFilms/
Here is a demo of a DIY window film installation.
Here is another demo of a different product under more severe conditions.
These products work well on annealed glass (typical glass that breaks into sharp shards when broken). For use on tempered glass (which is usually a sliding glass door, as required by most building codes), you will need to do a special install to anchor the film to the frame with a specialized caulking.
These products work very well as an alternative to more conventional window protection. - Craig R.
Dear Mr. Rawles,
It is easy to become an avid reader of your site.
One simple means to beef up home security is simply to reverse entry door opening. Like commercial code doors, mine open "out" so any attempt to force "in" my doors has one working against the entire door jamb structure. I prefer steel 1 3/4" thick doors with any [small] window design at the top, if at all.
I live upstairs in my shop. The access to my apartment is up a stairs and through a outward opening door as mentioned. Before one intruder gets that far, I am aware through an old but simple means of alarm. Being that a fine fishing line trip line is strung each evening across the downstairs floors that is attached to electric switches. Intruders will trip one or another once inside the building and I will know by my apartment alarm where they are there long before they know I am waiting with the pump. - Jon C.
JWR Replies: That does have its merits, but I've always believed that it is important to have at least one door to a house open inward, especially in snow country. Someday it might be more than just embarrassing to get trapped in your own home.
Letter Re: Safety Note on Modifying Military FMJ Bullets
The article linked at "Box O' Truth Tests Elmer Keith-style DumDum Bullets" contains a very dangerous statement: "5. Cutting the end off a rifle Ball [full metal jacket (FMJ)] cartridge projectile will definitely make the bullet expand or break up..." DO NOT DO THIS! By cutting off the tip off of a full metal jacket (ball) round you have in effect created a pinched copper tube, open on both ends, filled with a plug of lead. Upon firing, it is possible to blow out the lead plug, leaving the tube (jacket) lodged in the barrel. When the next round is fired, the bullet will encounter this obstruction in the barrel, causing damage to the firearm and possible personal injury. Commercial soft point bullets have a solid base to preclude this from happening. Regards, - John in Colorado
Odds 'n Sods:
Reader Rod McG. recommended this web site: Mappery.com
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I heard from a gent over at The FALFIles Forums that Dan's Ammo still has some original FN (of Belgium) Browning Hi-Power 13-round 9mm magazines at just under $20 each. These were made for the South African Defense Force (SADF), back in the 1960s, and were recently surplussed. If you own a Hi-Power pistol, my advice is to buy at least eight of these magazines for your own use, and another larger pile for barter. You'll probably be laughing about getting them at this price, this time next year. OBTW, if you hear of any other importers or dealers that still have any full capacity magazines at pre-BHO inauguration sales frenzy prices, let me know the details, and I'll mention them in the blog.
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A limitless Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB)? Now there is talk of bailing out newspapers!
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Bill in Wyoming mentioned the current swarm of earthquakes going on under Lake Yellowstone-over 250 since it's beginning on December 26th. The strongest was a [Richter Scale] magnitude 3.8, on December 27th. Some have suggested that this might be a precursor to a massive Yellowstone Super-Caldera eruption. Current updates can be found at the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, as well as links to seismograms and other monitoring adjuncts.
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I spotted this bit of bureaucratic self-congratulation linked at The Drudge Report: US rescue averted 'financial collapse': Treasury. (This is perhaps a more accurate headline: US rescue delayed 'financial collapse': Realist.)
Jim's Quote of the Day:
"For more than six hundred years-- that is, since Magna Carta, in 1215--there has been no clearer principle of English or American constitutional law, than that, in criminal cases, it is not only the right and duty of juries to judge what are the facts, what is the law, and what was the moral intent of the accused; but that it is also their right, and their primary and paramount duty, to judge the justice of the law, and to hold all laws invalid, that are, in their opinion, unjust or oppressive, and all persons guiltless in violating, or resisting the execution of, such law." - Lysander Spooner, The Right of Juries
Thursday January 1 2009
Notes from JWR:
The third year for SurvivalBlog has come to an end, with continued strong growth in readership in 157 countries. Our stats have tripled in the last 14 months! We've logged 400,000+ different readers, and we now have nearly 5,800 archived articles, letters, and quotes--all are available for free download. Since this is New Year's Day, here is the one and only annual reminder to renew 10 Cent Challenge subscriptions. For the privacy of my readers, I don't keep records of subscriptions, so I have no way of tracking when any particular subscription has lapsed. I never e-mail our subscribers, bugging/begging them to renew. This isn't PBS, so there are no insufferable Pledge Drives. SurvivalBlog subscriptions are entirely voluntary. If you realize that it has been a year or more since you subscribed, and what you get out of reading SurvivalBlog is still worth 10 cents a day to you, then please send a $36.50 subscription payment via AlertPay, GearPay, PayPal, check, cash, "Forever" stamps, or money order. (We even get some subscription donations in silver coins and .45 ACP ammo!) OBTW, please mark your calendar to remind yourself about subsequent renewals. To all of you that have subscribed: Thank you so very much!
Our Mailing Forwarding Address is:
Jim Rawles
P.O. Box 303
Moyie Springs, Idaho 83845
Online Subscription Payments:
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Happy New Year! I pray that in Aught Nine you and yours are safe, healthy, right with God, and well-prepared. It looks like we're in for some turbulent times. I hope that SurvivalBlog has substantively helped you to get prepared.
Letter Re: It's a Scary World Out There: Fearsome Attack Hens
Jim,
I recall awhile back you posted a message that offered humor and a bit of the lighter side of life since we’re inundated with intimidating subject matter. I haven’t seen too many lighter sided anecdotes of late so here’s mine. When I was 20 yrs old, I was a paratrooper and foolhardy scared of nothing. Now, after serving five years as an airborne, ranger, infantryman and 20 years in law enforcement, I’ve learned to respect dangerous situations.
Recently, my insurance agent dispatched her part time picture-taker to my residence to snap some pictures of the place to keep records current. I reside at the point of transition from suburbia and rural life not too far from Washington, DC. This photographer was approximately 20 years old. Upon arrival telephoned the home number whereupon my wife answered. He asked her to come outside to help. She asked "why"? In a semi-scared voice, he reported that he was "surrounded by birds" and was afraid that he was going to be attacked. My wife told him that they were just free ranging hens and that there was nothing to worry about. She actually had to convince him that the hens were our pets and that they wouldn’t ‘attack’ him. I suppose this is funny only if you own hens and realize how friendly they are. Besides, even if you’ve never seen a live chicken, can you imagine being scared of one? Happy New Year, - Pete.
Six Letters Re: Home Invasion Robbery Countermeasures--Your Mindset and Architecture
Greetings Mr. Rawles,
I read your blog everyday and am learning so much. Thanks for your dedication to helping prepare us for the future.
In reference to the recent article on home security, we lived in Argentina for three years and we could all learn from their security measures. The first house we lived in had steel shutters, as did everyone in the neighborhood, and they were all shut at night. The doors have locks that automatically lock when you leave the house. The small front yards usually have tall steel fences with the same height gates. The gates were also locked at all times. Homes that didn't have shutters of some kind, had bars on all the windows. Big dogs were also the norm. The back yards were usually walled in by concrete block walls sometimes 10 feet tall. At our second house, one of our neighbors had concertina wire around the top of their walls.
It is a normal custom to clap your hands to alert someone you were at their front gate. It would be very rude to try to enter someone's front yard without being invited first, and is usually not possible due to the locks and dogs.
But, as new houses were being built, we were seeing less and less of the shutters and bars, more American style houses were being built and that's a shame.
It was very difficult at first to live with these kinds of security measures, but after awhile it became normal and comforting to know your house was secure. Gun control is very strict and very few folks have guns, so home security was very important.
Just wanted to share those observations with you. Thanks again for your hard work.
Warmest Regards, - Beverly A.
Hello James Wesley, Rawles:
Feed lot panels are extremely useful for hardening windows against dynamic entry.
For those who are not familiar with the product, feed lot panels are welded wire product. They are typically 16 feet long. The height varies but is typically 54" high. The wire is very stiff (typically #4 or #6 gauge) and the wire is galvanized for long life. The panels are inexpensive and semi-rigid.
We recently replaced a 13' x 69" bay window with a 60" by 60" picture window (one pane) flanked by a couple of 60" high by 24" wide double hung windows. Our primary goal was to increase energy efficiency by reducing cold air infiltration during the winter and to improve our cross ventilation during the summer.
I had some fairly extensive conversation with the contractor regarding my desire to have sufficient "beef" beside each window to be able to run several 5" x 1/2" eye-bolts beside each window (with the eyes of the bolts aligned in the vertical direction), slide the trimmed-to-fit feedlot panel over the eye-bolts, and then drop a cane bolt through the openings in the eye bolts.
(Minor detail notes: Roof overhang requires that cane bolts be inserted from bottom, but "drop in from top" is a more natural word picture. Also desirable to use a cushioning material to hold panels away from frame of window to eliminate scarring. Rubber or vinyl garden hose is a possibility.)
He was very happy to comply. Each window is framed in with 2x4s next to the window frame, but then a 4x4 was bracketed into the top and bottom headers immediately beside the 2X4s on each side of each of the three windows. Wood is cheap.
Feed lot panels can be defeated. But defeating them requires time and tools...not something typical home invaders want to expend/lug around. Feed lot panels also help protect windows against airborne, flying trash during extreme wind storms. They may be ugly, but they are cheap, durable and relatively easy to install, given proper tools and some time and the foresight to have enough wood to bolt into. - Joe H.
Jim,
I've already made numerous changes to my home and property to thwart / limit any would be thefts and boosting the overall security. A number of ideas came from your web site. Thanks.
Other than the simple measures of installing a Radio Shack microphone/speaker and, locking the doors of my barns with snap links and walking out the front and locking that door, I am worried for my horses if someone should try to force their way inside and manage to stay very quiet. I'm very impressed with my $149 Radio Shack investment, you can hear everything and my house is 300 feet away.
Can you offer any additional advice on making barns more secure? I'm more concerned about the horses than all of the tack and saddles. But those items aren't cheap either. Thanks, - Pete in Florida
JWR Replies: I do have one specific recommendation: Buy a MURS band Dakota Alert infrared intrusion detection system. (Available from MURS Radio, one of our advertisers). Put one Motion Alert Transmitter (MAT) out at the end of your driveway, and one "watching" the front of your barn door. We use Dakota Alerts in conjunction with matching frequency Kenwood MURS band hand-helds here at the Rawles Ranch on a daily basis. We have been very satisfied with their quality and reliability. In our experience, this combination is ideal for detecting intruders on likely avenues of approach.
.
Dear Mr. Rawles,
First, as always, I am compelled to thank you for your service to all those who would learn from your knowledge and efforts. My 2009 10 Cent Challenge contribution is forthcoming, but it is only a small token of my appreciation in light of all that I have learned from your excellent blog.
I wanted to add a note of my reality to your recent excellent comments on the sorry state of home architecture in our country today. I live in a typical recent-construction, middle class, Metro Atlanta home with a brick front facade, and Hardiplank (a concrete-like product molded to look like wood siding) on the remaining three sides. It is essentially three stories, with a "daylight basement" comprising the first story. Many of the "weak links" that you pointed out exist in my home, but we did install a fairly comprehensive alarm system.
Last February, while my wife was at work and I was taking my son to daycare (it was 11:15 a.m.), thugs broke into our house by kicking through the basement wall! Evidently, the crooks suspected, or noticed, our alarm system, and tried to bypass it by going through the wall. It would have worked if the dummies hadn't opened the basement door preparing to depart with their loot. Of course, opening the door set the alarm off, and they fled never having made it out of the basement. They did steal an old rifle that I had recently bought, and had left in a storage closet awaiting a good cleaning. All in all, we were very fortunate.
I write not to simply share my story (which is, unfortunately, not very uncommon), but to point out what I learned:
1. Though Hardiplank, and similar products, have many virtues, resistance to invasion is not one of them.The concrete feel and appearance gives a false sense of security. I was shocked to learn that the only thing between my "inner sanctum" and the bad guys was the Hardiplank, fiberboard sheathing, and drywall! Even if your 1st story sheathing were 5/8" plywood it would present a much more formidable barrier!
2. If I had heeded my instincts, the burglary could have been avoided. I try to live in "condition yellow", though I slip into white more than I would like. That morning, while buckling my toddler into the car, I noticed a rough-looking young man walking slowly up the sidewalk. By the time I had buckled my seatbelt, he was ambling back down the street in the opposite direction. All of the alarms in my head went off, but I didn't call the police to investigate (something that they encouraged me to do in the future while discussing the event). I did, however, step back inside and turn on the alarm, which I didn't usually do for such short trips (things are different now). If I hadn't turned on the alarm, I would have probably walked right into a home invasion in progress (stupidly in condition white!) after dropping my son off. As it was, as soon as I got the call from the monitoring service, I knew exactly what had happened, and who had done it! During the frantic 3 mile drive home, my main concern was, "what will I do if I arrive before the police?" At the time, I had no firearm with me, which leads me to my final point.
3. Any time you walk into your home [after an absence] in condition white, with no way to defend yourself, you invite disaster. Yes, I know it can be terribly stressful to admit to yourself that our society has "come to this", and some people would rather just play the odds and hope it doesn't happen to them. I feel that God was watching over me that day (by the way, the police were on site when I got home - it had only been 20 minutes since I left the house) and gave me a second chance. I guess I could remain in condition white, and hope it doesn't happen again, but I have responsibilities. God gave me a second chance, and I am committed to learning from this experience. You'd better believe that I will arrive home in condition yellow to orange, looking for any hint that something is awry - especially if my family is in tow! Oh yeah, and my next house is going to be as solid as I can afford, and then some!
I hope you and yours had a wonderful Christmas, and will have a terrific new year. Best Wishes, - SH in Georgia
James;
I have been an advocate for survivors of violent crimes. I would like to point out some things that I have been tracking for almost a year now. (I have 'home invasions" as a google search alert and get messages on this topic many times a day). First, I have noticed that most of these invaders are not so much interested in carting away ill-gotten booty from the residence that they have invaded as much as the first object is to terrorize and torture those in the dwelling. This is a major change in the high level of deprived violence of these burglars who are now being reported as "home invaders". The attacks are sadistic, whereas, twenty years ago true sadistic attacks were more rare as the goal seemed to be to steal and leave. Second, these sadistic home invasions are world wide. I have not yet figured out why this is so. It is, however, concerning that no place seems safe from this bizarre rise in sadistic violence. Perhaps it can be linked to violent video games? I am not sure what else could link these acts world wide. Third, unlike violent home crimes in years past, the home invaders are attacking during the hours when it is more likely that the residents are home. (Most of these invasions seem to take place between 11 PM and 5 AM). Clearly, unlike in early times when the criminal element wanted to avoid the residents, this new class of thugs want that violent encounter.
I think this does require that decent folks to have a change in understanding what is taking place. These criminals are not just getting the pleasure of taking your property but they want to cause you and your family extreme fear, terror, and pain. Passive conduct by the victims that might have allowed these thugs to rob your home and leave you alone might have worked twenty years ago, but I think today's home invaders first literally will want a pound of your flesh. On a positive note, I have also read of numerous residents who have successfully fended off the invaders by being properly protected within their homes. I am 'surprised" that the media doesn't seem to do much coverage of these heroic deeds of the victim defending himself or family members from these sadistic invasion. - Advocate for Survivors of Violent Crimes
Dear Mr. Rawles.
Regarding your post on Tuesday December 30, titled "Letter Re: Home Invasion Robbery Countermeasures". I would like to see you elaborate on the "Countermeasures" portion of the title. Specifically, could you show some real examples that people could use as "force multipliers" similar to this . Maybe you can do a post on with and without grid power in SHTF scenarios.
For example I live in a suburb of a city of about 80,000 people. I live on a corner lot and have a fenced in back yard. What low-tech methods could I deploy to allow full coverage around the perimeter of my property to signal of coming trouble. It would help if the ideas were designed to not create an abundance of false alarms and not alert the surrounding neighborhoods like a trip alarm.
I don't have a retreat location but I'm getting my finances in order to allow a property purchase soon. If TSHTF tomorrow, I would need some simple ideas to keep my family safe as long as possible.
BTW, I read your "Patriots" novel and it was awesome! I am about half way thorough your "Rawles Gets You Ready" course and it too is great. Thanks, - Steve F. in Louisiana
JWR Replies: A corner lot is problematic. Depending on the landscaping that is prevalent in your neighborhood, if it would not look too out of the ordinary then you might consider planting a "decorative" thorny hedge around as much of your perimeter as possible, and install a gate across the front of your driveway. Make both the maximum height that you can get away with, without being branded as the Neighborhood Paranoid Poster Boy. The gate should have a spiked top of some sort, to discourage gate jumpers. Just inside the gate, position a passive infrared Motion Alert Transmitter (MAT) for a Dakota Alert. You should also plant thorny bushes below each of your windows.
Motion-activated floodlights are inexpensive and very easy to install.(They are available at home improvement and hardware stores such as Home Depot and Lowe's.) If the power grid goes down, you really should bug out ASAP, but if you are forced to stay, then solar-powered floodlights might suffice. (But note that their reviews mention that they have a short service life. So it is best to just test them but not mount them outdoors until needed.) Under those circumstances, a pair of night vision goggles would be a must. (And if you have those, you might want to retrofit your floodlights to use infrared bulbs. Being battery powered, your Dakota Alert system will continue to operate without grid power. But of course keep plenty of spare batteries on had for all of your flashlights and other home security and communications electronics.
Odds 'n Sods:
Eric sent us this: Car Market Total Collapse
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Mike McD. found two Australian article of interest: Return of the 1950s housewife?, and Jobless heading for 1 million as rate cuts won't avert pain
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The essay Foundations of Crisis, by Doug Casey was recommended by reader "Hiker LT"
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Eric L. sent this link: Box O'Truth Tests Elmer Keith-Sytle DumDum Bulletso o o
The latest, from Cheryl: World Markets Suffer Worst Year Ever -- Bankruptcies to Hit Record in 2009 -- Dr. Doom: Short Treasuries, Buy Hard Assets -- Faith in Markets Cracks Under Losses -- Muni Bond Sales Drying Up as States Face $42 Billion Shortfall
Jim's Quote of the Day:
"Once a government is committed to the principle of silencing the voice of opposition, it has only one way to go, and that is down the path of increasingly repressive measures, until it becomes a source of terror to all its citizens and creates a country where everyone lives in fear." - Harry S. Truman, August 8, 1950
Wednesday December 31 2008
Note from JWR:
It's your last day! More than 675 SurvivalBlog readers have bought Foodsaver vacuum packing/sealing systems at the special December $59.99 sale price. We get a little "piece of the action" for each order. So this a is a great way to save money and to support SurvivalBlog in the new year. Don't miss out on this sale! You can buy a FoodSaver v2830 for $59.99 (originally $169.99) with free Standard Shipping for orders over $100, directly FoodSaver.com.Use code L8FAV28 at checkout. This sale ends at midnight Eastern Time, tonight. By buying foods in bulk and re-packaging them in more handy (single meal size) vacuum bags, you can save a lot of money on your grocery bill. You can also vacuum pack Mason jars! (These come with a wide mouth Mason jar adapter as an included accessory.) But be sure to get an additional regular mouth Mason jar adapter, for an extra $8.99.) Buy a FoodSaver. You'll be glad that you did!
Two Letters Re: The Best College Degrees for the Next Depression?
Sir,
College is alarmingly pricey. As a child of the 1970s, I grew up understanding that you either got a useful degree or paid your own way.
I contend that the most useful education currently is learning a trade. Welding, auto repair or electrician's certification will pay the bills through the rough times as people choose to repair instead of purchase. As times get better, some of those trade school credits may transfer to a college and you are on your way. What is that architecture degree, but about a year of drafting plus three tortuous years of art...the discovery of use of light and space...with a dash of engineering. One of the coolest people I know, was a blacksmith who got his doctorate in physical chemistry. You never know where your trade may take you.
Art comes in many mediums that must be learned such as welding for those grand sculptures that grace the lawns of universities and corporations. Get the "practicals" under your belt first, while you make a few bucks or barter for your dinner.
Don't forget that the library is free. You should know your reference librarian as she hold the key to all knowledge or can borrow it from another library for you. Read. Read everything you can get your hands on.
As you head off to college: Find out all the required courses for your degree. Does your college allow "testing out" of any subjects? The last I checked it cost about $75 average to test completely out of 3 or 4 credit courses. Testing out may not be an option for "required for major" courses.
If you are still in high school, go for every advanced placement (AP) for college credit course you dare.
So as you plod away learning your trade that is only vaguely related to you dream degree, remember: we do what we have to do so that eventually we can do what we want to do.
Now, who is gonna come fabricate some new tines for my tiller? - The Accidental Survivalist
Sir:
For more than 20 years I have volunteered my time with unemployed US scientists, engineers, and computer professionals. Based upon my experiences, I suggest that young people 1) attempt to have a trade under their belt before they get a four year college degree; 2) preferably pick a college major that will allow one to work for oneself and not as a mere employee; 3) consider mixing two majors such as getting a teaching certificate and forensic accounting as this might give one two options for a career. If the student is not committed to college or unsure what to major in, consider attending a community college first as it is less expensive. Learning something either in college or via the trade pre-college that is hands-on work such as plumbing, construction, roofing, carpentry, welding, aquaculture (fish farming) , farm management, get commercial driver's license, learn to drive farm equipment, learn to repair things -- electronics, washers/dryers, etc. Some high schools have working relationships with community colleges where a high school student can take college courses while still in high school thus saving lots of money while living at home. Some schools will allow students to attend high school part time and learn a trade at the local community college at the same time. Many high tech professionals in the USA have been told by college career counselors after the student graduated with his degree in chemistry, physics, engineering, or computer science that he should consider that degree as nothing more than a 'hobby'. Kind of a fun mental exercise but it was foolish of the student to expect to have dreamed of a career in that field. What you are looking for is a skill (or skills) that allow you to be self-employed. If the young person is in college, they should focus on skills that will make them more marketable -- oral communication skills, writing, bookkeeping (useful for one's own business), marketing, solid basic math and computer skills. Having a degree in the medical profession may or may not make one employable -- I have read of dentists and physicians who were unemployed during the Great Depression. It is possible that cosmetic surgeons might be in high demand if there are wars as the victims (military/civilian) may need reconstructive surgery. Health care professions are still probably a good bet but it doesn't guarantee a career or stable income. Case in point: I have a friend whose brother-in-law in California is an allergist and is now closing his practice because he can't making a living in this specialty. He is dropping down to become a Physician's Assistant (PA) and will work for his wife who is also a physician. He, however, cannot afford to maintain the cost of his license as an allergist with fewer people willing to see an allergist in an economic recession.
Princeton University economist, Alan Blinder (do an Internet search to read his international presentations) has stated that young Americans should not waste their time and money (paraphrasing) on a four year college degree. Instead, American youth should be learning trades that cannot be off-shored. (Unfortunately, he doesn't raise concerns about the importation of cheap labor.)
One should strive to have a college education that is debt free. No one knows what the future holds and graduating with an educational debt for a degree that may or may not provide a job (no longer a career) is a tremendous burden for a young person to enter the adult world with. When looking for a summer job or working during college -- try to pass on the burger flipping jobs and look for work in something where one can enhance a skill such a learning how to pump out septic systems, car parts shop, working on a dairy farm, landscaping, etc. I do think that having a college degree is valuable to one's personal understanding of the world but it is not necessarily essential these days to earn a living. I would urge young people, if possible, to complete a four year degree but not having one is not a sign of failure.
Finally, I also urge parents to help their children to learn basic life skills -- how to manage the home budget, cooking skills, gardening, car repairs; as well as learning to be happy and enjoy life. Learn to sing, dance, play some musical instrument, juggle, something to bring happiness to oneself and to others. This might sound like it is off topic, but when one is unemployed if you have these inner resources to pull upon it can literally be life saving.- Cynthia W. (An informed American on jobs and education)
Two Letters Re: Seeking Advice on Assembling Web Gear
Sir,
In a recent post you mentioned unbuckling your ALICE belt when going prone. I learned a little trick in ROTC using a carabiner and two pieces of 550 [parachute] cord. First, adjust belt the way you want it. Second, tie the two pieces of 550 cord onto the end of the ALICE belt and hook them together with the carabiner. Adjust the length of the 550 cord to get the slack needed when going prone. This allows you to keep your belt buckled but when you need additional slack, just release the buckle and the 550 cord keeps the belt from flopping around too much. Don't tie the 550 cord together, as the carabiner allows you to unhook the belt quickly if you fall into a creek or river and need to dump your LBE - Bill N.
Dear Jim:
Thank you for referring readers to us for advice on web gear. At BulletProofME Body Armor we are authorized dealers for Blackhawk and SpecOps tactical nylon gear, but really our focus is body armor. Normally we only do quantity orders for tactical nylon, outside of specific armor-related items we stock. But we can give some good advice on the questions to ask to help avoid major mistakes.
There is such a huge selection to choose from these days, and so many different situations, it is hard to give universal advice. Some basic questions are in order - and probably mandatory to remind “gear freaks” to keep it practical! ;-) . There is no one right solution, and all solutions have tradeoffs:
1. What are the possible situations / circumstances ? Under contract for a year of security duty in “the Sandbox”, or trying to keep the neighborhood secure during a power outage… As Stephen Covey says, “Begin with the end in mind".
2. What do you really need to carry? More weight and bulk = less mobility. versus “two is one, and one is none”.
3. How discreet do you need to be? A basic kit on a belt might be preferred to avoid the martial image that a full chest and drop leg rig gives off. On the other hand, if you were doing a ‘Neighborhood Watch on Steroids” in a post-Hurricane Katrina type situation, you might want to be more overtly armed and armored to deter looters.
4. In a similar vein, does the setup identify you as one of the good guys? In a chaotic active shooter incident you don’t want to be the recipient of “friendly fire”.
5. Used with, or without a backpack, or day pack?
6. Can you access your most time-critical items standing, kneeling, sitting, prone - or in a vehicle? (By the way, the practice of putting lots of equipment on the belly area is a really bad idea when you really need to get low and prone…)
7. Can you get in a vehicle and drive reasonably comfortably with the rig on?
8. Can you keep your pistol and spare mag in the same place whether it is concealed carry, open carry, or on a tactical rig? This is so that your pistol draw (and spare magazine draw) are always the same in your muscle memory. You probably don’t have the time to do the amount of draw practice you really should right now - why add another draw to practice? Keep it simple for your muscle memory with less chance of a slow or fumbled reaction under life-threatening stress.
A similar line of reasoning applies to rifle magazine pouch placement - keep it simple and consistent.
For example, assuming you are not a full-time SWAT officer, holsters on drop legs are probably not such good idea, unless you can really make the time to practice a different draw stroke until it becomes instinctive under high stress. (We do recommend drop legs for additional ballistic protection and secondary pouches.)
A belt attached to armor is a great idea to keep it consistent, and all one piece.
9. How fast can you put the gear on? Waking up to the sound of breaking glass at 3 a.m., or a patrol officer pulling up to a bad scene - then it had better be fast to throw on. Keeping it to just a belt is faster, or all web gear on one piece of armor with MOLLE [attachment points].
Some options for speed:
Spare ammo already on the rifle
A “Grab and Go-bag”
Bandoleers (Note that these can flop around, but they are very fast to throw on.
Yours truly, - Nick at BulletProofME.com
Odds 'n Sods:
Reader N.L. spotted this useful article at the Backwoods Home magazine web site: Bury a gun and ammo for 15 years. (BTW, I consider a subscription to Backwoods Home magazine for families that are seeking genuine self-sufficiency.)
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Eric flagged this Wall Street Journal piece: Bumpy Crop: Farming's Sudden Feasts and Famines, As Grain Prices Rise and Fall and Perhaps Rise Again, Growers Struggle to Navigate a New Age of Volatility and High Costs
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The Werewolf (SurvivalBlog's correspondent in Brazil) must have been thinking about the snow-bound Great White North when he spotted this snow bike and sent us the link.
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The Economatrix sent all these: Wall Street Makes Gains as GMAC Gets $5 Billion Lifeline -- US Confidence Sinks to Record Lows -- Home Prices in 20 Cities Drop 18% in October Alone -- Holiday Sales Drop to Force Bankruptcies, Closings -- Japan Banks May Get $110 Billion Bailout -- New Thai PM Warns of Shattered Economy -- UK Workers to Face Layoffs and Pay Cuts in 2009 -- Crackdown on Hedge Funds After Madoff -- Celente: Top Trends 2009 -- People Pulling Up to Pawn Shops Today are Driving BMWs and Cadillacs -- Annus Horribilis 2009Jim's Quote of the Day:
"While 2008 will probably be best known as the year that global stock markets had their values cut in half, it was really much, much more. It was a year in which every major asset class - stocks, real estate, commodities, even high-yield bonds - suffered significant double-digit percentage losses, resulting in the destruction of over $30 trillion of paper wealth. To blame this on subprime mortgages alone would be to dismiss an era of leveraging that encompassed derivative structures of all types, embodying a belief that economic growth was always and everywhere a certainty and that asset prices never go down." - Bill Gross
Tuesday December 30 2008
Letter Re: Home Invasion Robbery Countermeasures--Your Mindset and Architecture
Dear Mr. Rawles:
First and foremost thank you for your novel "Patriots" which I am currently reading.
I live in the Dallas-Ft. Worth metroplex. As of late there seems to be a rise in the number of "home invasion" type of crimes in this area. Every morning that I go to work I hear about a new incident in the metroplex. This has led me to put inside locks on my bedroom doors and purchase my first gun. I consider myself one of those "know enough to be dangerous" people, but am planning on taking a handgun safety course . I'd like to know your thought on preparedness for these "home invasion" crimes which are on the rise. Once again thank you for your novel which has opened my eyes to just how unprepared I am. Sincerely, - Geoffrey T.
JWR Replies: You've surely heard the phrase "caught off guard." In my opinion, almost the entire American citizenry has been systemically "off guard" since the end of the US Civil War. There are two fundamental weaknesses that make American homes vulnerable to home invasions: a condition white mindset, and appalling architectural weakness. I'll discuss each.
Condition White Mindset
First and foremost is an almost universal Condition White mindset. This refers to the Cooper situational awareness color code for "unaware and unprepared". The vast majority of the urban and suburban population spends 90% of their daytime hours in Condition White. They do a lot of idiotic things, like failing to keep their doors locked at all times, and failing to keep loaded guns handy. Most folks lock their doors only just before retiring each evening. So most daytime and early evening home invasion robbers simply stroll in to unlocked houses and catch the occupants flat-footed. By adopting condition yellow as your norm, and by taking the appropriate security measures, you will tremendously lessen you vulnerability to violent crime, including home invasions.
Architectural Weakness
Secondly, 150 years of relative peace, stability, low crime rates, and cheap energy have worked together to push American residential architecture toward very vulnerable designs. Modern American homes are essentially defensive disasters. They have huge expanses of glass, they lack barred windows or european-style security/storm shutters, they lack defensible space, and they often have no barriers for the approach of vehicles. Another ill-conceived innovation is the prevalence of floor plans that situate the master bedroom at the opposite end of the house from the children's bedrooms.
For the past 25 years, one of the hallmarks of "bad neighborhoods" in the US has been the prevalence of barred windows and beefed-up doors. These are neighborhoods where the prevailing crime rates have pushed the majority of the population into Condition Yellow as a full time baseline mindset. Given the upswing in crime rates that will undoubtedly accompany the coming depression, I wish that everyone in the ostensibly "good neighborhoods" had this same outlook. I don't find it all surprising that criminal gangs now specifically target wealthy suburbs for home invasions, for two reasons: A.) That is where the good stuff is, and B.) These residents are sheep for the slaughter (given the prevailing condition white mindset.)
One of the most chronic defensive lapses is American suburban architecture is exterior door design. Typically, entrance doors either have widows immediately adjacent, or set into the doors themselves. Even worse is the ubiquitous sliding glass door. Nothing more than a brick or a paving stone tossed through the glass and bingo, instant access for home invaders, with the fringe benefit of instant fright and surprise for the occupants just inside, who will likely be startled by the crashing noise and flying glass. SWAT and MOUT trainers call this a form of "dynamic entry". There are umpteen variations. You may recall the use of a piece of patio furniture in Robert DeNiro's dynamic entry of Van Zant's house in in the movie Heat. Another is the vigorous application of a 5- or 6-foot length of steel pipe or a more specialized tool, in (the proven "break and rake" technique preferred by the British SAS and SFOD-D (commonly called "Delta Team") to quickly clear any protruding shards of glass).
America in the Near Future = Welcome to South Africa
In South Africa, the crime rate has been so high for so long that it has changed the way that people live in a day-to-day basis. Every stranger is viewed with extreme suspicion. Automobile drivers regularly refuse to pull over if they are involved in a minor traffic collision, for fear that it is a pretext for a car jacking.
Threat Escalation and Proactive Countermeasures
Modern military planners often talk in terms of threat spirals. In essence, a given threat escalates and it inspires a defensive countermeasure. The ideal situation is "getting inside your opponents threat spiral"--meaning that your anticipate your opponent's next escalation, and proactively take countermeasures, insulating yourself from the future threat.With that in mind, here are some thoughts on potential home invasion threat escalation and countermeasures (perhaps some SurvivalBlog readers would care to add to this list):
1.) More frequent home invasions. The worse the economy gets, the more crime we can expect. Home invasions and kidnappings are likely "growth" areas.
2.) Use of dynamic entry tools by home invaders. We can expect them to use commercial or improvised door entry battering rams and Hallagan tools--like those use by police. This means that just standard solid core doors by themselves will be insufficient. Switching to steel doors and.or adding sturdy cross bars will become common practice.
3.) Possible use of vehicle-mounted battering rams.
4.) More frequent and elaborate police impersonation by home invasion gangs.
5.) Larger, better equipped, and better organized home invasion gangs. Larger gangs will be able to invade a home--conceivably even when there is a party in progress.
6.) The potential use of cell phone jammers.
7.) More elaborate ruses as pretexts to get homeowners to open their doors. For example, not only will the "point man" be dressed as UPS driver, but there will be a very convincing looking UPS truck parked at the curb.)
8.) More home invasions at any time of the day or night.
9.) More use of pepper spray and other irritants by home invaders.
10.) Use of large diversion such as explosives to draw law enforcement to "the other side of town."
11.) More elaborate intelligence gathering by home invasion gangs--researching exactly who has cash, fine art, gemstones, precious metals, or jewelry in their homes. (BTW, this is just another reason to practice good OPSEC.)
Given these possible threat spiral escalations, you might consider building a dedicated "safe room". I can think of no better way to get inside the bad guys' threat spiral. Such a room could serve multiple purposes, including "panic room", gun and valuables vault, storm shelter, and fallout shelter. (And hence, provide you family with solutions for multiple scenarios. The folks at Safecastle (and other specialty contractors) can build these both aboveground or underground, with special order inward-opening vault doors.
You mentioned putting a lock on your bedroom door. This is usually insufficient, since most interior doors are hollow core, they typically use lightweight hinges, and they have insubstantial strike plates. Most of these doors can either be knocked down or knocked though, in very short order. I recommend replacing your bedroom doors with heavy duty exterior type doors (preferably steel) with heavy duty hinges and one or more deadbolt locks. If your house has all the bedrooms isolated on one hallway, then I recommend adding a heavy duty door at the end of that hall, and keeping it locked at night. (Basically a "safe wing" for your house) Then, inside of that safe wing, you should have a far more secure dedicated safe room that your entire family can retreat to, before the outer layers of defense succumb to physical attack.
Redundant communications are important, so you can solicit outside help. Both the master bedroom and the safe room should have hard wire ("POTS") telephones that are serviced by underground lines with no visible junction boxes. Be sure to test using a cell phone, as a backup, from every room. Having a CB radio in your safe room also makes sense. OBTW, one of my consulting clients in New Mexico intentionally installed a vertical 3"-diameter air exhaust vent from the ceiling of his safe room/fallout shelter to his roof. Using a broomstick, he can pop the slip-fit flapper valve loose, and then use the pipe as a conduit for flares from his HK P2A1 flare 26.5mm flare pistol! He reported that he has tested shooting meteor flares "up the spout", and it worked fine. Very clever.
The Ultimate Solution: Designing for Security from the Ground Up
I most strongly recommend that the next time that you move, that you buy a brick or other masonry house and upgrade its security, or better yet, start with a bare lot, and custom build a stout house with and integral safe room, from scratch. As previously discussed in SurvivalBlog, two good starting points for house designs are Mexican walled courtyards and building with square bastions (also known as Cooper Corners). These projecting corners eliminate the "blind spots" that are common to typical square or rectangular houses.
For greater detail on this subject, I recommend Joel Skousen's book "The Secure Home." My novel "Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse" also has some detailed design description for ballistically armored window shutters and doors, as well details on constructing neo-medieval door bars.
If you are serious about custom building or retrofitting an existing house for increased security and/or adding a safe room, then I recommend the architectural consulting services of both Safecastle and Hardened Structures.
Letter Re: Seeking Advice on Assembling Web Gear
I love the questions on web gear. Best advice I can give, having gone through multiple iterations of trying this and that, is to divide up your load. What do I mean by this?
In the military they have a “combat load” and an “approach load” concept. Your “combat load” is the web gear that you see troops with all the time – their “battle rattle.” On the other hand the “approach load” is similar to what we would refer to as a survival load (roughly).
The major problem with web gear is that it does not work with any backpack that has a waist belt unless you set it up to not carry anything on the pistol belt unless it is carried with a drop leg (thigh) type of setup. Oops, no ammo pouches or canteens on the pistol belt. That means that forget the cheap ALICE gear etc. unless you plan on walking only for a day and not even spending the night in bad weather. You have to go with a vest type setup right out of the gate if you want to use a large backpack.
Personally, I have used an Enhanced Load Bearing Vest (ELBV) and H-harness that can carry eight M16 magazines in chest mounted pouches, or a no-name (custom made) survival vest that carries magazine pouches on the belly with some success. I prefer the ELBV as it can take all the cheap ALICE gear in a pinch. It also does not dig into me when I go prone like the other vest (which I only use when I am out hunting any more as it makes the perfect day pack with minimal survival gear – which is what it was designed for). I then have my pistol in a drop leg holster so that it rides below both the pistol belt and the backpack waist belt. On the other side I have a knife in a drop sheath and pistol magazine pouches in a drop leg configuration (holster and magazine pouches from Black hawk).
Water is in a hydration bladder inside the backpack as well as two one quart canteens (you can’t beat the old canteen cup and canteen cup stove with any modern gear) and two two quart canteens in or on the backpack. I would recommend people look at the Kifaru line of backpacks – they are rock solid (mine has survived three trips to the Middle East and one swing through Afghanistan) and built by the guy that started Mountain Smith. They are pricey but they don’t fail in the field and wear like a dream.
I also carry on the outside of the backpack a Camelbak hydration pack with 100 ounces of water. It has just enough carrying capacity to make up for the butt pack that I used to carry on my pistol belt (poncho, some food, and SERE gear). In a fight I can ditch the backpack in under a minute, get the Camelbak on, get one of the two one quart canteens clipped on, and shove the Russian Spetsnaz shovel into the loops on the Camelbak (designed to carry ice axes) after I take it off of the larger backpack. So, while not perfect it is the best thing I have found to date.
A couple of tips no matter what brand/setup you go with. First, go prone and roll around on the ground. Your magazine pouches should not dig (try to land on one if it digs into your diaphragm …) and at least some of them should be accessible regardless of the position you are in. Second, you should be able to roll over and over and low crawl with the rig. I saw one kid with a ton of gear not be able to get low enough behind a street curb one time and he ended up a casualty. [JWR Adds: One reason that I prefer traditional pistol belts and suspenders is that by simply unbuckling the pistol belt latch, any pouches in the front can be pushed to the sides (putting all the weight on the suspenders), allowing the wearer to low crawl effectively.] Remember that hard objects in your backpack become shrapnel when hit by bullets. Third, when you jump up and down you should not make any noise.
When you are done with your web gear buying and backpack buying and you start to load up, keep this in mind. On your web gear you only want those things that you will need in a fight.
The Colonel that was portrayed in the movie “Blackhawk Down” now has an infantry battalion in Iraq. Because of his experience with the [Mogadishu] “Blackhawk Down” affair he now never leaves his compound without having at least 30 loaded magazines on him. Plus he carries a combat lifesaver kit. This outfit has the best ones on the market today. - Hugh D.
Odds 'n Sods:
In the wake of the real estate collapse comes inevitably: Squatters: The latest real-estate menace. (A hat tip to Hoffmama.)
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Several readers sent this: As if Things Weren't Bad Enough, Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S. (Of course, consider the reliability of the source.)
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David D. mentioned that Farm Show magazine has lots of articles with energy saving ideas, including: "Wood Gas Generator Produces "Free" Power", a Coal-Fired Grain Dryer, Biodiesel Generator Powers Up On Veggie Oil (or Almost Any Oil) , and Manure Furnace Burns All Kinds of Waste.
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Florida Guy mentioned another Nanny State scheme: Oregon attempts mandatory GPS car tracking of all new autos
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The latest Glut-'o-Gloom from Cheryl: Kerkorian Sells Off Remaining Ford Shares -- Oil Surges on Concerns Mideast Violence will Disrupt Supplies -- Fallout Begins After Dismal Holiday Season -- Ruble in Trouble -- 10 Things that Won't Survive the Recession -- Crisis Batters American Small Businesses -- In a Recession, Execs Make a Quick Getaway -- Stocks Pull Back Amid Mid-East Tensions -- Dollar Rocked by Mid-East Violence -- Wall Street Faces Record Losses in Last Week of 2008 -- Shoppers Even More Finicky
Jim's Quote of the Day:
"When bad men combine, the good must associate; else they will fall one by one, an unpitied sacrifice in a contemptible struggle." - Edmund Burke, 1770
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